A victory for Marine Le Pen on Sunday April 24 is politically improbable, because the day after the televised debate where she was clearly dominated by the head of state, the far-right candidate lost further ground. It is now 15 points behind in the latest delivery from our partner Ipsos-Sopra Steria: 42.5% of voting intentions against 57.5% for Emmanuel Macron. Never has a candidate with such a margin three days before the deadline lost the ballot.
But it is still statistically possible. First, because a growing proportion of voters decide on the very last day. In our survey, 42% of those who say they want to vote blank or null say they can change their mind. To win, Marine Le Pen must mobilize some of the abstainers from the first round, and a significant fringe could move at the last moment. She must also benefit from significant reports from Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters: in our survey, 18% of them would opt for her despite repeated calls from the rebellious candidate not to give her a vote. Finally, she must hope for a massive abstention from the rest of the rebels. She therefore tries to be harmless, above all not to encourage them to slip a Macron bulletin to block the far right.
The main danger for the Head of State would be a demobilization of his electorate who would believe victory had been won. He therefore repeats that nothing is settled. We saw the consequences of such a phenomenon during the referendum on Brexit or the victory of Donald Trump, two polls with surprise results but with serious consequences for Europe and the world.
It all depends on the magnitude of what would be his third consecutive failure. A large defeat would awaken the contestation of which it is the object within the far right, in particular on the side of the Reconquest movement of Eric Zemmour, and the conviction that it will never be able to win. Conversely, a narrow defeat, with at least 46, 47 or even 48% of the vote, would undoubtedly encourage him to return to the attack.
In recent weeks, Marine Le Pen no longer said to consider throwing in the towel. Why not a fourth candidacy in five years? After all, the one who bequeathed his party to him, his father Jean-Marie Le Pen competed well on five occasions. And in 2027, we will only celebrate the 53rd anniversary of Le Pen’s first presidential candidacy.