Can Jordan Bardella really refuse Matignon if the RN only obtains a relative majority?

The National Rally enters the home stretch of the legislative elections at the top of the polls. Jordan Bardella has already warned that he only wanted to become Prime Minister if he had an absolute majority of deputies in the National Assembly on the evening of the second round.

Less than a week before the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday Matignon seems within reach for the National Rally. But Jordan Bardella will not go on just any conditions. He repeated it on Sunday June 23 in an interview with Sunday newspaper. There is no question of accepting the post of Prime Minister if he only has a relative majority. The president of the far-right party makes his demands. He demands an absolute majority, or at least 289 deputies. It’s that or nothing. He does not want to take the risk of burning his wings and finding himself at the mercy of a motion of censure. For Jordan Bardella, when entering Matignon, it’s belt and suspenders!

If Emmanuel Macron calls him, can he refuse the job? From an institutional point of view yes, of course. Anyone can refuse to be nominated, even with an absolute majority, in fact. But politically, it would be very complicated to explain to RN voters. Deprived of an absolute majority, neither Élisabeth Borne in June 2022, nor Gabriel Attal in January 2023, refused to go to Matignon. They encountered many difficulties, had to overcome around twenty motions of censure, but they managed to govern and even pass very divisive texts such as pension reform or the immigration law.

Lepénist activists have dreamed of taking power since the creation of the National Front, 52 years ago! Since 1972, one of the flagship slogans of the far right has been “Le Pen quickly!”. And suddenly, when the RN would finally be called to business, its leader would run away. This “refusal of obstacles”, according to the expression of Gabriel Attal, could have serious electoral consequences. In fact, the RN would have difficulty hiding, Jordan Bardella knows it, so he is bluffing for two reasons.

This technique allows him to put pressure on Emmanuel Macron. In quick succession Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have just mentioned the resignation of the head of state. Oh, they are not demanding it, not yet anyway, but they are calling on the President to question himself in the event of a blockage. A way, casually, of putting the subject in the public debate, at the risk of giving the impression, already, of sketching a semblance of a power grab. The other reason is a more classic tactic. By threatening paralysis in the event of a relative majority, Jordan Bardella seeks to mobilize his voters to obtain an absolute majority, an achievable objective for the far-right party given its current dynamics.