When reality catches up with (science) fiction. Un asteroid is currently heading towards Earth. The celestial body measures one kilometer in diameter, which corresponds to three stacked Eiffel Towers. It is classified as potentially dangerous, because with its size, if it were to hit the surface of the Earth, it could carve a crater 15 to 20 kilometers wide and the energy of the impact would be equivalent to several thousand bombs. atomic. A quarter of the species would then disappear.
If we talk about it in such a detached way, it is because there is no risk that this scenario will occur. This asteroid called 1994 PC1 will not pass very far from our planet on Tuesday January 18 at 9:50 p.m. But its trajectory has been scrutinized for a long time and, closer to us, it will actually be at a distance that corresponds to five times the Earth-Moon distance.
About a thousand asteroids of this size could potentially threaten us. Lcientists know 90% of these large asteroids which measure a kilometer in diameter or more and according to Patrick Michel, research director at the CNRS, we are safe from any collision with them for the century to come.
Other smaller asteroids are also monitored. The American and European space agencies have been developing programs for several years to protect the planet from any impact of this type. Nasa notably launched last November a spacecraft called dart, whose mission will be to hit the asteroid Dimorphos on September 26. This asteroid does not actually present any danger to the earth but it is a question of carrying out a crash test, to try to deviate it from its trajectory, and to advance knowledge for the future.
An asteroid that threatens the earth in the short term and that no one sees coming, except a handful of scientists, this is the scenario of the movie Don’t Look Up on Netflix.
In reality, scientists can calculate asteroid trajectories and anticipate scenarios 20 to 30 years in advance. In the film, the Earth is threatened in the short term because it is the impact with a comet. It is different, and in this case the idea of a more immediate danger is scientifically credible.
But statistically, the risk of a collision with a comet is unlikely.
Concretely, today the planet is more threatened by global warming than by an asteroid falling from the sky.