If there is no absolute majority after the elections, motions of no confidence could bring down future governments. To avoid this scenario, the head of state has the possibility of setting up an executive without political weight, pending the next dissolution.
“We can have an ungovernable country.” Around ten days after the dissolution of the Assembly, this support from Emmanuel Macron is trying to shape the French political landscape after the legislative elections on Sunday June 30 and July 7. The vote desired by the Head of State could in any case result in the absence of an absolute majority, i.e. more than 289 deputies, as was the case between June 2022 and June 2024.
Once the verdict of the 577 French constituencies has been reached, a new relative majority in the Assembly would force several parties to agree to form a government. None of the three main camps could make up the government team alone. Each could, however, try to negotiate with other partners, to their left and to their right, but would risk failing to obtain a majority in line with a shared project.
The National Rally and New Popular Front blocs could also launch discussions for a coalition. Even if they succeed, each on their own, the new executive would be very fragile whatever happens. “We could have a deadlock situation where we would try a government which would be quickly overthrown with a motion of censure” voted by 289 deputies, explains to franceinfo Fleur Jourdan, public law lawyer. This situation could be repeated at least until July 2025, because a new dissolution cannot take place in the year following the previous one, according to article 12 of the Constitution.
To avoid significant governmental instability for many months, Emmanuel Macron could then be tempted to appoint a less divisive head of government, who would then propose very consensual ministers. “The more ungovernable it is, the more technical it will be”predicts the Renaissance framework cited above. “When we talk about technical government, it is a coalition with the broadest possible agreement, not necessarily between allies, who agree on a name, not necessarily political”specifies Fleur Jourdan.
The ministers of this government would not have political legitimacy through their mandates, but through their skills or their functions. They are, for example, senior civil servants, technicians or specialists in particular themes. “The idea is that parties do not participate in government because they do not want to be responsible for the policies pursuedexplains constitutionalist Benjamin Morel on LCI. This saves a year, until the next dissolution, with parties preparing for a next election and agreeing to make the country governable by not voting on a motion of censure.” In exchange for a form of stability, this technical government would defend few, if any, divisive measures.
“Politically, it’s a bit of wasted time while waiting for the next legislative election.”
Benjamin Morel, constitutionaliston LCI
“The government is holding the administration, which is no small thing. It is passing bills which may be urgent, particularly from an economic point of view. It is passing the budget, which risks be the most complicated aspect in this matter, because your budget is an indicator of your policy”nuance the specialist.
In its recent history, France has not experienced a purely technical government. “The first government of the Ve Michel Debré’s Republic (1959-1962) was, however, designed as a government of technicians, with Maurice Couve de Murville in Foreign Affairs or Pierre Messmer in the Armed Forces.recalls the historian Jean Garrigues. There was a search for personalities without a strong political identity.”
Gradually, elected officials have imposed themselves on the government, even if members of “civil society”, without mandate, are regularly called upon to manage sometimes vast and eminently political portfolios. This was particularly the case for Nicolas Hulot at Ecology in 2017, Eric Dupond-Moretti at Justice in 2020 or Amélie Oudéa-Castéra at Sports in 2022, who are not political professionals.
After the dissolution, if France tried the experiment of a technical government, it could draw inspiration from several European countries. Belgium was thus ruled by a temporary government during the Covid-19 crisis. Italy has had four technical governments since the Second World War, the most recent being that of the government of the economist Mario Draghifrom February 2021 to October 2022. “These expert governments are led by a personality who is neither elected nor a member of a political party. It is the same thing for at least some of the ministers”explains to franceinfo Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public law at Toulouse Capitole University.
The specialist notes that these governments are born “as a result of crises that could not be resolved by the previous government” and are thought “like provisional governments to solve a problem”. Thus, the government of Mario Draghi “was born following a political and economic crisis linked to Covid-19”she explains and had “the support of a very broad coalition of political parties”.
“This context of crisis legitimizes these governments, whose Prime Minister is appointed by the president, even if they do not have democratic legitimacy.”
Nicoletta Perlo, lecturer in public lawat franceinfo
Far from being confined to managing current affairs, Italian governments made up of experts, “well received initially by the population”are “politics” And “adopted the most important reforms in recent years” believes Nicoletta Perlo. Mario Draghi thus finalized an economic recovery plan during his time in power. But “governments of experts do not help parties get out of their crises”, adds the specialist. Concord only lasts for a while and these union governments tend to make “anti-system parties rise to power in the following elections”points out Nicoletta Perlo.
The Brothers of Italy party of current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni “was not part of the coalition that supported Mario Draghi”explains the specialist. “As she did not govern, she was able to freely criticize the government and say that she would do better”, underlines Nicoletta Perlo. In September 2022, the far-right politician won the legislative elections with more than 25% of the votescompared to 4.35% in 2018.
Could such a scenario happen in France? Nicoletta Perlo doubts the formation of a technical government on the Italian model: “We are facing a crisis which is political, not economic or of any other nature. It risks being complicated, if the president decides to appoint a person who does not come from a party which was in competition during elections.” “This would lead to a reflection on the capacity of institutions to respond to this construction of political life, with three blocks”, extends Jean Garrigues. The political crisis could then transform into a regime crisis and reinforce the instability of a country already shaken by dissolution.