This agreement, the latest version of which was signed in 2010, limits the number of warheads deployed by Russia and the United States, and provides for inspections of military sites.
A new mark of defiance with hints of the Cold War. Russia has decided to suspend its participation in the New Start bilateral agreement on nuclear disarmament, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the end of a long speech to the Federal Assembly on Tuesday, February 21. This strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty, signed in 2010 with the United States, provides in particular for limiting the arsenals of the two countries to a maximum of 1,550 warheads and 800 launchers, i.e. a reduction of nearly 30% compared to the previous limit set in 2002.
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“It concerns intercontinental ballistic missiles, and it is a legacy of the Cold War”, told franceinfo Héloïse Fayet, coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). At the beginning of August, therussia had already declared the suspension of American inspections on its military sites, yet provided for in the agreement. “Vladimir Putin announced that he would no longer accept these inspectors, considering that Russians were prevented from going to the United States for visa matters”explains the researcher. “Which Washington had denied.”
“A collapse of the control system”
Since then, the United States is no longer able to obtain information on the real state of the Russian nuclear program. “In January, the US State Department had therefore delivered a very severe analysis in its annual report on the implementation of the New Start treaty, writing that it could not certify that Russia really respected the treaty “, continues the researcher. NATO had therefore asked Russia to resume these inspections, and Moscow had in return accused Washington of having destroyed the legal framework of the treaty. “Vladimir Putin’s statements are a logical continuation of this collapse of the arms control system.
The main consequence of the suspension of Russia’s participation in New Start, “it’s that there will be no more notification ahead of training shots”, explains Héloïse Fayet. So far, this has been the rule, as when Moscow successfully launched a Sarmat missile in April 2022. “This decision therefore increases the risk of an uncontrolled escalation: now, if a missile leaves Russian territory, Washington will no longer know whether or not it is an exercise”explains the researcher.
“It will no longer be possible to follow the Russian exercises with such precision, which increases the level of alert on both sides.”
Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relationsat franceinfo
Vladimir Putin also said that the Ministry of Defense and the state-owned atomic energy giant Rosatom should be ready to carry out nuclear tests, in case the United States launches them first. “The Americans signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), but they did not ratify it, unlike Russia”explains Héloïse Fayet. “I can’t see the Americans testing a nuclear weapon soon, especially since they haven’t done so for decades. But this allows Vladimir Putin to unfold his narrative, associating the United States with an irresponsible power.”
NATO ‘regrets’ Moscow’s decision
The Russian president, moreover, suggested that NATO join New Start to make this treaty fair, “because, within NATO, the United States is not the only nuclear power”. He notably cited France and the United Kingdom, which also have nuclear arsenals.
The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, has “regret” the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the bilateral treaty, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced a decision “very disappointing and irresponsible”.
Vladimir Putin, finally, accused Washington of being involved in plans to strike strategic targets. “This return to nuclear rhetoric had disappeared in recent months”observes Héloïse Fayet. “This is not a nuclear threat, but it is a signal of a further deterioration in Russian-US relations, as this was the last ground where the two countries still exchanged information.” This suspension, according to her, “will add yet another file to be negotiated at the end of the war.”