By striking western Ukraine, in Lviv, and a military factory near kyiv, in the north, on Monday April 18, when it seemed to concentrate its forces in the east and in the Donbass, Russia tries “to hinder the whole functioning of the war machine” Ukrainian, analysis on franceinfo Michel Goya, retired colonel and doctor of history. According to him, Mosou wants to cut the “backward movements”including the delivery of military equipment, fighters on the front.
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franceinfo: Why is Russia hitting Lviv or kyiv when it said it wanted to focus on Donbass?
Michael Goya: This campaign of strikes throughout the territory has no direct link with the campaign and land operations, particularly in the Donbass. It is something apart that has taken place from the start and which consists of hitting all the targets that appear to be of military interest, that is to say specific infrastructures, networks or purely military objectives. The idea is to try to paralyze or in any case hinder the whole functioning of the war machine behind the main front.
In doing so, is Russia seeking to create a diversion or to buy time?
No. The Russians have started the main operations in the Donbass region, they are sending their forces as they are recovered. It progresses little, it’s true, but it’s not necessarily a way to divert attention.
The amazing thing, really, is that the Russians didn’t do it sooner, that they didn’t make a series of massive strikes early in the conflict to try to prevent all Western aid , all the material aid that arrives, to reach the Ukrainian forces.
Michael Goyaat franceinfo
They do this in a scattered way. We always have some difficulty understanding the logic behind it. It’s a little erratic but it’s still a campaign intended to hinder all rear movements and in particular all movements that go through the railway line, the heavy equipment that we are beginning to send for the benefit of the Ukrainian army. The idea is to try to cut that off from the frontline troops.
Can the capture of the Donbass be quick?
It seems complicated. The Russian forces are advancing very slowly. The town of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and other small towns which are associated, form a kind of conurbation, very solidly defended. If the objective is to conquer all of Donbass, it will be necessary to conquer all these cities, but that means a second battle of Mariupol practically. On the other hand, it is likely that Mariupol will be taken in the coming days. At the start of the campaign, the battle was fought over the area equivalent of Paris and its inner suburbs. Now the Ukrainian resistance is concentrated in one or two districts. There are probably only a few days or even a week of resistance left. The outcome is inevitable.