Monday’s by-elections are unlikely to be a “game changer,” but they could test the leadership of Liberal and Conservative leaders and spell the end of the People’s Party of Canada, experts say.
“We don’t expect any big surprises, in general,” summarizes the director of the Institute of Canadian Studies at McGill University, Daniel Béland.
However, all eyes will be on the riding of Portage–Lisgar, Manitoba, where the future of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) is at stake. Maxime Bernier will try to repeat the feat that his PPC predecessor, Solomon Wiebe, had achieved in 2021 by collecting 21.6% of the vote.
A lower result “would really be a crushing defeat for him”, which “could call into question his leadership”, predicts Mr. Béland. “It would be a sign that his party is going nowhere. “Same story on the side of the professor of political science at the University of Quebec in Montreal, André Lamoureux, who believes that Maxime Bernier has a “big battle to fight” in this very conservative riding, on the border of the United States .
Mr. Bernier could indeed lose the votes that the PPC was able to benefit from in 2021, inheriting the votes of certain conservatives disappointed with the “more centrist campaign” of Erin O’Toole. The latter have now “returned to the fold”, now that the leader, Pierre Poilievre, “uses populist rhetoric”.
One thing is certain, according to the two experts, a victory for Maxime Bernier is “science fiction”, if we use the words of Mr. Béland.
A test for conservatives
Pierre Poilievre is also not immune to a questioning of his leadership. The election in the riding of Oxford, Ontario, is a “referendum on Pierre Poilievre,” notes Mr. Béland.
The Conservatives, who won with 47% of the vote in the last election, will they maintain such a gap with the Liberals (20.5%)? According to 388Canada, they would be in the lead with 39% of the vote, closely followed by the Liberals, at 37%.
The Conservative leader “is not unanimous,” explains Mr. Lamoureux. “He’s very strong in Western Canada, but when you get to Ontario, it’s mixed,” he said. The political scientist does not consider all the same a defeat for the party. The opposite case would be “really a crisis, a big surprise,” adds Mr. Béland.
A breach in the liberal fortress?
In Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, in Montreal, Anna Gainey should succeed her Liberal colleague, former minister Marc Garneau, the two experts agree. “The question is to know by what margin,” says Mr. Béland.
If the New Democrats were to come in second place, the professor of political science foresees a rise of the Green Party in this riding, surfing on “the relative unpopularity of Trudeau”.
Greens candidate Jonathan Pedneault is “trying to attract Liberal voters who aren’t very happy with what Trudeau has done on the environment, and courting some Anglophones who feel abandoned by the federal government” with the proposed law C13, he explains.
However, the foreign interference scandal should not influence the votes in this riding, where economic and linguistic issues are priorities, believes Mr. Béland.
This is not necessarily the case in Winnipeg South Center, Manitoba, judge André Lamoureux. According to him, the New Democrats and the Conservatives could take advantage of Justin Trudeau’s “tarnished” reputation to open a breach in this Liberal stronghold.
According to a poll by Angus Reid, 44% of participants in Manitoba would vote for the New Democratic Party (NDP) if the provincial election were to be held tomorrow. Only 10% would vote for the Liberals, who are far behind the Conservatives (39%).
“Can this NDP popularity that seems to be taking shape on the provincial scene be expressed during this by-election in Winnipeg South Centre? says Mr. Lamoureux.
Mr. Béland, for his part, sees the Liberals winning. “Jim Carr, who died in December, was still a very popular MP. And there, it is his son, Ben Carr, who presents himself under the liberal banner”. It remains to be seen whether he will win as “easily” as his father, who won 45.5% of the vote.
The NDP candidate, Julia Riddell, will have to face an unusual number of candidates. They are 48 in the constituency.
The majority of the candidates are independents, notes Mr. Béland, and were recruited by the Longest ballot Committee (the committee for the longest ballot) to “draw attention to the lack of electoral reform in Canada” , he explains. An act which should not however have consequences on the ballot paper, in addition to its length, affirm the two researchers.
Residents of the four constituencies will go to the polls on Monday. Some have already voted early, since June 9.