The die is cast, nothing is going well: the polling stations in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun locked their doors at 9:30 p.m. The Liberal camp hopes to hold on to this Montreal stronghold where the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois have been actively campaigning. However, the result could be delayed due to the complexity of the vote count.
What you need to know
- Voters in two ridings, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun (Montreal) and Elmwood—Transcona (Manitoba) are being called to the polls in by-elections;
- The spotlight is on LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, a Liberal stronghold where a defeat for Justin Trudeau’s party would be a severe blow;
- In Montreal, the count will take longer than expected due to the record number of candidates, but Elections Canada maintains that the result will be known Monday evening.
The mere fact that a victory in this Montreal riding is not a given is evidence of the precariousness of the situation for the Liberals. The incumbent, David Lametti, has won the last three elections decisively with more than 40% of the vote.
The collapse of the castle of Toronto—St. Paul’s, on June 24, exposed the vulnerability of the Liberal troops: the unpopularity of the government and its leader in the polls is effectively reflected on the ground.
So much so that there are few in the Liberal ranks who predict a victory for candidate Laura Palestini – on Monday, there was an attempt to lower expectations, arguing that the constituency was not “a stronghold” and that the results would be close.
In a rather unusual move, the Liberal MP candidate spoke early in the evening, when only 2% of the ballots had been counted. In a speech delivered in French, English and Italian, she suggested that the final verdict would have to wait until the early hours of the morning.
“Like you, I am eager to find out,” she said in a speech that was not overflowing with enthusiasm.
PHOTO DOMINICK GRAVEL, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Laura Palestini tries to keep the riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun liberal
For NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, whose decision to tear up the agreement with the government two weeks ago was not unrelated to the holding of this by-election and the one in Elmwood—Transcona, a gain on the island of Montreal would be welcome.
His candidate Craig Sauvé, who has been campaigning for months, would become the second Quebec NDP MP to sit in the Commons. A victory would also allow Jagmeet Singh, who has hardly benefited from the pact with the Liberals in opinion polls, to reassert his leadership.
PHOTO JOSIE DESMARAIS, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Craig Sauvé and Jagmeet Singh
Among the Bloc, Louis-Philippe Sauvé arrived late. Despite this, the Bloc Québécois candidate has the wind in his sails, according to the results of two Mainstreet polls placing him ahead of his rivals. However, the poll aggregator 338Canada placed the Liberals and the Bloc in a tie on Monday.
“If the Liberals lose and Justin Trudeau insists on staying in office, the caucus should ask for his resignation,” says Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal government strategist now a director at the firm Tact Conseil.
Because “if they lose a riding like that on the island of Montreal, I don’t know what they have left in cities like Toronto,” he adds.
A result “before the sun rises”
The suspense could last for some time given the record number of candidates on the ballot. There are 91 candidates on the ballot, the vast majority of whom (77) are activists from the Longest Ballot Committee, a controversial lobby group that advocates for electoral reform.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY ELECTIONS CANADA
Elections Canada had to change the layout of the ballot to accommodate all the candidates.
In the Toronto—St. Paul’s by-election, where voters had a total of 84 candidates to choose from, the time between the closing of polls and the announcement of results was about eight hours.
Elections Canada learned from the experience: it hired more election workers, sent staff from headquarters to the riding, and adjusted the Canada Elections Act to allow additional teams to participate in the count.
The Chief Electoral Officer, Stéphane Perrault, also used his power under the law to allow the counting of advance votes on election day, starting 4 hours before the polls close, at 5:30 p.m.
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, Bloc candidate in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
“We cannot provide precise estimates on the completion of the results, but we can confirm that the results will be available on election night. [lundi] ” wrote Matthew McKenna, a spokesman for the federal agency.
By “evening,” Elections Canada means “before the sun rises tomorrow morning,” he said.
The other by-election
If the by-election in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun is getting more attention than the other election being held on Monday, it is because the Liberals have something to lose in Montreal. In Manitoba, it is the New Democrats who are running the risk of having a stronghold taken from them.
NDP candidate Leila Dance, however, was on a roll after 36.7 per cent of the ballots were counted. With 48.2 per cent of the vote counted, she was slightly ahead of her Conservative rival Colin Reynolds, who had garnered 43.7 per cent.
Elmwood—Transcona riding [autrefois Winnipeg—Transcona] was represented for nearly thirty years by the late New Democrat Bill Blaikie before passing into the hands of his son Daniel Blaikie, under the same banner.
Conservatives and New Democrats competed for the working class vote – the standard-bearer of Pierre Poilievre’s party is also a union electrician.