When was the last good news for the Parti Québécois (PQ)? Close your eyes and search…
Since 2008, the PQ has declined in each general election, both in percentage of votes and in number of deputies. The only exception: a surge of four seats in 2012, in a bittersweet victory with a minority government obtained against the worn-out liberal troops of Jean Charest.
In fact, the last victory in a partial for the PQ dates from November 2010, when André Simard narrowly won Kamouraska-Témiscouata.
The PQ train finally managed to apply the brakes and turn the tide. And he does it in an unexpected way: in Quebec, a hostile land. In a constituency that the party had never won.
This explains the euphoria seen at the Normandin de Sainte-Foy on Monday evening, where smiles mixed with tears. That and the overwhelming lead against the CAQ, beyond all their expectations.
The PQ goes from three to four deputies. He will gain a little visibility thanks to his recruit Pascal Paradis. This former director of Lawyers Without Borders Canada is already capable of showing off in front of the cameras.
The PQ is now a quartet. Its presence is no longer limited to Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent, with an accidental siege in Montreal (Camille-Laurin) due to the withdrawal of the solidarity rival of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP), caught stealing leaflets in mailboxes…
The PQ remains very far from power. He still has three times fewer deputies than the Solidarity, and almost five times fewer than the Liberals. But it is above all the symbol that counts.
PSPP and Mr. Paradis are cleaning their party of this smell of decline. This will help them raise more donations. And to be taken more seriously when they speak on various subjects.
Their victory itself is undoubtedly also explained by symbolism. According to my conversations with the different groups, there was no central issue for this campaign. For example, the third Quebec – Lévis link did not really affect the residents of Sillery and Sainte-Foy. The effect was indirect at best – François Legault’s word was doubted.
It was probably less about the issue and more about the message. For a caquist, what was the motivation to add a 90e deputy to the team?
On the other hand, those who were beginning to judge the government as a little too confident wanted to make themselves heard. All they had to do was find a messenger.
At the start of the campaign, Mr. Paradis’s loyalty was called into question – he wanted to become a minister for the CAQ in 2022. But the PQ used the affair to its advantage by making the partial a duel. National polls – as well as a regional poll with high uncertainty – reinforced this impression.
PSSP seems to have united the vote of the discontented. According to reports, liberal and conservative supporters gave him a chance. Especially since we said that for the PQ, one more MP made a huge difference.
An aura of romanticism floated around PSPP, who played the neglected idealist card, channeling certain popular PQ myths.
Demography helped the PQ.
The role of those aged 65 and over seems to have been decisive. More than two-thirds of voters in this age group voted. Among 18-34 year olds, the participation rate barely exceeded 20%, according to data circulating early Monday evening.
In general, young people are already voting less. And this time, there were no polling places on campus. When it is announced that the partial will be a duel between the two shades of blue, it is not very tempting to take an hour of a radiant autumn day to check off your little “x”. Particularly when you know that the solidarity candidate, Olivier Bolduc, was not the first choice of the national executive, who would have liked to see a woman.
Regardless, this disappointing result for QS will fuel the debates during the race for the female spokesperson between Mmy Ghazal, Labrie and Lessard-Therrien.
For liberals, the failure is even more painful. The older electorate was usually supportive. But this partial shows once again that the French speakers are abandoning them. This will not encourage volunteers to jostle for their leadership race. Their electoral machine is no longer what it was. The data used to go door to door was not as detailed as that of their adversaries, it seems.
It would be an exaggeration to compare this partial to that in Louis-Hébert in 2017, where Geneviève Guilbault paved the way for CAQ victory the following year. This time, we are three years away from the next campaign. Nevertheless, with such a rout, Mr. Legault experienced his worst political day since June 2015 when he lost Chauveau.
For the PQ, it is the opposite. After so much waiting, the sun has just broken through the clouds.