The impact of the pandemic on Montreal will be felt for a long time. The Statistical Institute of Quebec (ISQ) anticipates that the population growth of the metropolis will be lower at least until 2041. During this time, all regions of Quebec should see their population increase significantly more rapidly.
Posted at 6:11 p.m.
Montreal and Laval down
In new projections for 2021-2041, the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) reveals that Montreal and Laval see “their projected population being revised downwards”, unlike the 15 other regions of Quebec. “This year, net inter-regional migration was very low for the island of Montreal. The year before, there had been a movement towards the suburbs, so the northern crown had been quite favoured, but in the last year, even the crown had fairly low balances. The entire metropolitan region has been revised downwards,” observes the Institute’s demographer, Frédéric Fleury-Payeur. His group anticipates barely 3% growth in 20 years for the island of Montreal, a figure significantly lower than the 2021 scenario, which means that Montreal would lose nearly 180,000 residents in 20 years. In Laval, we would still be talking about 12% – a growth that remains less than in the past –, while for the metropolitan area, it would be about 10% within two decades, the equivalent of the provincial average.
The regions gain from the change
It’s a completely different reality for several regions located near major centres, which are seeing a reversal in their upward trends. Let’s mention the Laurentians, with an expected increase of 21% over 20 years, or even Lanaudière (+ 16%), Montérégie (+ 16%), even Estrie (+ 17%). In May, eight mayors from the Laurentians had made a group outing to demand more provincial investments to deal with the significant growth in the population in sight. “We have always been underfunded here. But there, it will take a little more agility in the budgets to allocate them at the right time, in the right place, according to the real increase in the population. Otherwise, there will be a real lack of services. And we won’t be able to catch up,” says the mayor of Brébeuf and prefect of the MRC des Laurentides, Marc L’Heureux. The more remote regions, such as the North Shore, are projecting decreases, with -10% in this case.
Aging and labor
Throughout the province, the inevitable aging of the population continues. But it remains even more marked in certain regions, show the ISQ data, which could have a pronounced impact on the available workforce in the coming years. In Abitibi-Témiscamingue, for example, the population aged 20 to 64 should decline by 10%, in Bas-Saint-Laurent, by 11%, in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, by 12%, in Gaspésie– Îles-de-la-Madeleine, 14% and on the North Shore, 22%. “Aging is such a heavy trend that there are no big major changes possible on the horizon. The only way to change it would be to suddenly have a lot of children or a lot of young immigrants, which is not at all in our projections,” says Mr. Fleury-Payeur.
A more pronounced “regionalization” of immigration
The ISQ also predicts an even more pronounced “regionalization” of immigration over the next few years. In other words, this means that more and more newcomers will choose to settle outside the major urban centres, even if these will nevertheless remain the choice of most of them, especially Montreal. In its report, the organization notes that this trend towards regionalization could gradually diminish in the coming years, but “stabilize completely from 2031”. “Let’s be clear: the vast majority of immigrants are still heading to Montreal. But we see a trend towards the regions, there are more of them,” breathes demographer Fleury-Payeur, evoking that the numerous government programs to stimulate immigration to the regions in recent years probably have something to do with it.
Telecommuting and new realities
Behind the regions that could see their population increase hides a new reality: telework, responsible in large part for the change in the residential preferences of Quebecers. “If, in many regions where the rates are raised, it is mainly teleworkers who are more numerous, there will be questions to ask. Will these be workers bringing labor to the area, or just asking for services? “, further illustrates the demographer on this subject. In the office of the mayoress of Montreal, Valérie Plante, it is indicated that “the time has come to fight against urban sprawl”. “If this trend turns out to be true, all of Quebec will suffer from the economic and environmental consequences of this phenomenon. To effectively reverse this trend, we also need the support of the two other levels of government,” says press attaché Marikym Gaudreault.