By 2028, global annual temperature is likely to be on average 1.5°C above pre-industrial level, says UN

The World Meteorological Organization estimates that global temperatures will be 1.1°C to 1.9°C higher each year than the 1850-1900 reference period.

The thresholds not to be exceeded mentioned in the Paris agreement are getting dangerously close. By 2028, the global annual temperature is likely to be on average 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, according to projections from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), published on Wednesday June 5. The UN agency estimates that this scenario has an 80% chance of coming true.

The signatory states of the Paris agreement had committed to ensuring that mercury would not exceed 1.5°C above what the planet knew in the pre-industrial era by 2100, “even if short-term annual warming does not constitute a permanent violation of the threshold” set by the agreement, recalls the WMO. “Between 2024 and 2028, the global average temperature near the surface is expected to exceed the values ​​of the reference period 1850-1900 each year by 1.1°C to 1.9°C”specifies the UN agency.

Furthermore, the WMO considers it 86% likely that at least one of these years will become the hottest on record, thus dethroning the year 2023. The latter recorded an average temperature of 1.48 °C above the pre-industrial level.

Besides the year 2023, the global average temperature of the last twelve months is the highest ever recorded, at 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average, according to the latest Copernicus report. “The WMO is sounding the alarm because we are going to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold more and more frequently”warns Ko Barrett, secretary of the organization. “We have already temporarily exceeded this level for some months, and, indeed, for the average of the most recent twelve-month period.”