Bulgaria’s political scene has faced instability since early 2022, marked by seven elections and fragile coalitions. Recently, four parties united to form a government led by Rosen Scheljaskow of Gerb, which includes the Socialists and the protest party “There is Such a People.” Despite concerns over compromises with pro-neutrality parties, the coalition aims to pursue Euro adoption. Observers remain skeptical about significant reforms, yet there is cautious optimism for progress amidst ongoing political challenges.
Bulgaria’s Political Rollercoaster: A New Government Emerges
Since the beginning of 2022, the political landscape in Bulgaria has been tumultuous, with citizens going to the polls seven times. Each election cycle has resulted in ambiguous majority outcomes, leading to complicated coalition negotiations that frequently falter or result in unstable administrations, ultimately prompting yet another election. The nation finds itself in a seemingly endless cycle of political uncertainty.
A Coalition Forms: Hope for Stability
For a considerable period, it appeared that Bulgaria was destined for yet another round of political impasse. However, in an unexpected turn of events, four parties have reached a consensus, and as of Thursday, Bulgaria has a functioning government. The cabinet will be led by Rosen Scheljaskow, the former parliamentary chairman from the largest faction, Gerb. This coalition will not only feature members of his conservative party but will also include representatives from the Socialists and the protest party “There is Such a People,” led by television personality Slawi Trifonow.
Additionally, the DPS faction, which represents the Turkish minority, lends its support to the government without holding any cabinet positions. This party experienced a split last year due to a leadership conflict, resulting in two distinct groups.
However, this political breakthrough comes with certain compromises. Gerb, which has traditionally maintained a pro-Euro-Atlantic stance, had previously ruled out collaboration with parties that promote neutrality between Russia and the West and oppose military assistance to Ukraine. The Socialists, aligned with President Rumen Radev, fall into this category.
Despite these complexities, Bulgaria’s alignment with the West remains intact, given the existing power dynamics within the government and its integration into the EU and NATO. Nevertheless, the conservatives have made significant concessions for the sake of coalition stability.
In Euro-Atlantic circles, there had been a strong preference for a partnership between Gerb and the pro-Western reform alliance PP-DB, which had briefly existed in 2023. That coalition disbanded over disagreements regarding crucial reforms, particularly in the judiciary.
PP-DB gained traction during extensive protests against rampant corruption linked to long-time Prime Minister Bojko Borisov of Gerb. The reformists view Borisov as a problematic figure, questioning the conservatives’ commitment to genuine rule-of-law reforms. Although Borisov remains a significant influence within Gerb, he now operates behind the scenes.
Another notable aspect is the presence of Deljan Pejewski, a highly controversial figure in Bulgarian politics, known for his significant sway over the judiciary and various politicians, including those from Gerb. Pejewski chairs one of the factions within the Turkish DPS, despite not being a member of the minority himself. The party has historically served as a tool for oligarchs, and Pejewski is currently under American sanctions due to the Magnitsky Act. Borisov has not adequately distanced himself from Pejewski, raising concerns.
Given these circumstances, expectations for the new government remain cautiously low. Many observers do not anticipate meaningful advancements in rule-of-law initiatives or anti-corruption efforts, and discussions surrounding foreign policy are expected to intensify.
Nonetheless, there is a glimmer of optimism. Political analyst Daniel Smilow notes that any progress emerging from the ongoing crisis is inherently a positive sign for the nation. Indeed, without a stable government, Bulgaria’s long-standing ambition to adopt the Euro has been at a standstill. The coalition under Prime Minister Scheljaskow has made it a priority to pursue membership in the common currency, indicating that progress in this area may finally be on the horizon.