Bulgaria | Yet another election without much hope of ending the crisis

(Sofia) Bulgaria, which votes Sunday for the fourth time in 18 months, is brooding: the forecasts still announce a fragmented Parliament and a puzzle to form a government, in a landscape jostled by the war in Ukraine.

Since the spring of 2021, this poor Balkan country has experienced political instability unprecedented since the end of communism.

In a scenario that looks like deja vu, the protagonists of the ballot are the same but the cards have been reshuffled.

Former Prime Minister Boïko Borissov, who fell into disgrace after a decade in power, could come back in force, according to polls published Friday which credit his conservative party Gerb with more than 25% of voting intentions.

Its slogan: “stronger than chaos”.

This 63-year-old colossus had been weakened in 2020 by massive protests against endemic corruption. But after crossing the desert, he is back in the saddle against a backdrop of public concern over soaring prices.

He criss-crosses the Bulgarian countryside, castigating the “inexperience” of his liberal competitor Kiril Petkov, who governed for seven short months before being overthrown by a motion of censure in June.

Pro-Russians in force

Elected on the promise to eradicate corruption, this 42-year-old former entrepreneur, educated at Harvard, had somehow formed a motley four-party coalition.

But he was overtaken by the conflict in Ukraine and the energy crisis, which dominated the debates of the campaign, under the gaze of President Roman Radev with supposed pro-Russian sympathies.

In this country of the former communist bloc, with strong historical, economic and cultural ties with Moscow, the Russian offensive is deeply dividing society.

Many citizens believe that the Kremlin is not responsible for the current situation and are ready to vote for the pro-Russian ultra-nationalist Vazrajdane (Renaissance) party, which could enter parliament – ​​opinion polls give it 11 % to 14% of the votes. The Socialists also close to Moscow would reap nearly 10%.

Under these conditions, the Petkov government’s refusal to pay the giant Gazprom in roubles, the expulsion of dozens of diplomats, the fight against “Russian networks of influence” did not really please, while Mr Borissov had at the contrary always torn between the different interests.

“A first step”

In an interview with AFP, Mr. Petkov defends his record. “The rule of law has started to return to Bulgaria,” he said, hailing “a first major step” towards “normalcy”.

And despite the opinion polls showing him losing by nine points, he wants to believe that the voters will once again choose “a new European, progressive, transparent Bulgaria”, and not that of a step backwards.

Aware of the distress of the Bulgarians in the face of inflation close to 20%, his sidekick Assen Vassilev, who officiated at the Ministry of Finance, sees in the fight against corruption the remedy for all ills.

“How to increase people’s income? You have to find the money somewhere,” he says. The solution: redirecting unduly used public funds to pensioners, health and education.

So when the duo is asked if they are ready to team up with Boïko Borissov, whose practices are hated, their answer bursts out: “No with an exclamation point! “.

But without compromise between the two main political forces in the country, the chances of forming a government are slim, say analysts.

Gerb declares himself “open to all” to “guarantee stability” in this troubled period, including the formation of a minority government or experts.

For analyst Gueorgui Kiriakov, “Vazrajdane’s behavior will be decisive”.

There is urgency, because these series of political crises are accelerating the exodus of young people from a country that has already lost a tenth of its population in a decade.

There are only 6.52 million Bulgarians left, compared to nearly 9 million in 1989, when communism fell.