The French parliament is set to begin discussions on the contentious 2025 State budget, aiming for 60 billion in savings. The government faces strong opposition, including from some allies of Michel Barnier. Key issues include potential tax increases and spending cuts, with debates anticipated to extend to Wednesday, possibly invoking constitutional provisions to bypass voting. The government must navigate differing opinions within its coalition while addressing significant challenges regarding the Social Security budget.
Parliamentary Showdown Over the 2025 Budget: A Clash of Numbers and Strategies
As discussions kick off on Monday, members of parliament and government officials are preparing for a critical examination of the revenue section of the 2025 State budget, which aims for 60 billion in savings. This ambitious plan is expected to face substantial opposition, including from some who normally support Michel Barnier.
The debates are set to commence at 9:30 p.m., marking the start of pivotal weeks for the nascent Barnier administration. The government remains cautious with the looming threat of censure from the National Rally (RN), coupled with the fragile backing of a relative coalition of Les Républicains (LR) and Macron’s party.
Returning to its original format just two days after being dismissed by the Finance Committee, the budget text is back on the table, a common occurrence for such proposals. This could be a fortunate turn for the government, which saw significant amendments made during committee discussions, hinting at challenging debates ahead.
With critical articles removed and “60 billion” in new tax revenues introduced – as highlighted by committee chairman Eric Coquerel, who cited superprofits and capital income – the government faces a turbulent path ahead.
In defense of the proposal, Michel Barnier emphasized the importance of equitably distributing the financial effort, rejecting the notion of a competitive tax approach, and advocating for a balanced division of savings between new revenue streams and expenditure cuts.
Anticipated Lengthy Discussions on the Horizon
A government source hinted that the discussions could extend through Wednesday, with the possibility of invoking Article 49.3 if necessary to expedite the process. “We are counting on allowing for a thorough discussion,” the Prime Minister stated, while acknowledging that this constitutional option may be employed should there be a parliamentary stalemate.
What constitutes a “stalemate” remains a point of contention. The left aims to streamline the amendment process to minimize delays, proposing around 100 to 470 amendments per group, compared to over 700 from the Republicans. In total, nearly 3,500 amendments were suggested, though many may be withdrawn or deemed inadmissible by Monday.
Leftist members are advocating for a vote that transitions the budget from an “austerity” framework to one more aligned with socioeconomic needs. “It’s plausible,” remarked Eric Coquerel (LFI) on Sunday.
Conversely, some in the Macron camp fear that if discussions drag on, the government might leverage constitutional time constraints to pass the budget to the Senate without a formal vote, where support for Barnier is notably stronger.
– Navigating the Social Security Budget Debate –
Interestingly, the left has also prepared a motion to halt discussions as early as Monday, although they may choose to withdraw it strategically. If voted upon, the motion likely wouldn’t pass due to opposition from the governing coalition and the RN.
The far-right party is eager to achieve victories, such as opposing planned increases in electricity taxes, while the government considers raising these taxes above €32 per megawatt-hour. This proposal has also faced pushback from LR and the Ensemble pour la République group, who advocate for a return to the €32 threshold.
In a broader critique, Rassemblement National president Jordan Bardella highlighted in Le Figaro that economic growth is being overlooked in the deficit reduction conversation, urging for relaxed regulations on businesses.
The government also faces internal challenges, with factions among lawmakers advocating for both the elimination of the surtax on large companies and the maintenance of taxes on high earners.
Minister for Relations with Parliament Nathalie Delattre assured a “listening government,” committed to responsible economic recovery. She is scheduled to meet with coalition MPs at 8:00 p.m. on Monday, with anticipation building for Barnier’s forthcoming address.
Additionally, the administration must navigate the contentious Social Security budget examination starting Monday in committee, where proposed savings, including potential delays in pension adjustments for inflation, and increasing employer contributions, are sure to stir debate within its ranks.