Brussels published its climate roadmap for 2040 on Tuesday, outlining a “just” transition and “guaranteeing industrial competitiveness”, against a backdrop of growing resistance to environmental standards four months before the European elections.
The Twenty-Seven have already set themselves the objective of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 (in 2020, the reduction reached 31%), to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.
As an intermediate target, the European Commission recommends aiming for a net reduction of 90% in 2040, which would amount to continuing the same rate of reduction as over the 2020-2030 period.
“Climate action requires planning now (…) It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and we need to make sure everyone crosses the finish line,” Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said in front of the European Parliament.
“Leadership in green industries and just transition are two sides of the same coin,” added Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic.
If “equity, solidarity and social policies must enable low-income households to make an effective transition”, other political conditions are necessary: “guarantee the competitiveness” of manufacturers, “fair conditions of competition” internationally , “stable and lasting jobs”…
Avenues outlined in broad terms: the European executive was required to update its projections in the six months following COP28 in December, but only revealed a general “communication” on Tuesday, due to the pre-electoral context.
The next Commission resulting from the June vote will have the difficult task of submitting a formal legislative proposal to the States and to the renewed European Parliament.
“Open dialogue”
Advocating “an open dialogue with all stakeholders”, Brussels intends to defuse concerns about the socio-economic impact of forced greening: its “Green Deal” has become a scarecrow for public opinion.
After transport, energy and industry, this set of environmental legislation collapsed on agricultural issues in the face of bitter opposition from right-wing MEPs and farmers, while leaders called for “a regulatory break” to relieve businesses and households.
As the elections approach, where a rise of the far right and nationalists is expected, the debate on environmental standards – at the heart of recent agricultural demonstrations – is proving politically explosive.
If the greening of agriculture (11% of European emissions) is mentioned, the text removes the potential for a reduction in agricultural emissions appearing in a previous document, and considers it “more effective” to target the entire agri-food chain. .
“Climate policy becomes complicated, emotional, risky […] To be socially acceptable and politically viable, strong actions will be required in the coming years: new green financing, strengthened energy governance, etc.,” estimates Simone Tagliapietra, of the Bruegel Institute.
“The application of the measures already approved alone allows us to get closer to -90% in 2040, but this objective remains revolutionary, it will require massive decarbonization of sectors where it is difficult,” he warns.
Brussels plans an “Industrial Green Deal”, with regulations, supply chains and adequate financing, and above all access to sufficient and affordable carbon-free energy with the continued growth of renewables, hydrogen networks, but also the civil atom via future small modular reactors.
Electricity production should “be almost decarbonized in the second half of the 2030s”, while consumption of fossil fuels burned for energy purposes would fall by 80% by 2040.
“Continue the effort
Finally, the 2040 projections are largely based on the capture and storage of large volumes of carbon – to the great dismay of NGOs criticizing these “unproven” technologies and the absence of a release date for fossils or the subsidies linked to them. .
“This is as significant as a lung cancer prevention goal without a plan to stop smoking,” lamented Silvia Pastorelli of Greenpeace.
Carbon market, transport, carbon tax at borders… With the legislation already adopted, “the job has been done for the pre-2030 period, the acceleration is happening now, then it will be an extension” of the efforts, tempers Pascal Canfin, Chairman (Renew, Liberals) of the Environment Committee in the European Parliament.
“Obviously, we have to continue. “It’s an election issue,” he warns.
According to Brussels, the investments required over the period 2031-2050 could reach, annually, 660 billion euros in energy and 870 billion in transport: a colossal cost, combining public investments and private funds, but to be compared to the “cost of inaction” in the face of climate damage.