The imbalance of military forces between Ukraine and Russia and the categorical refusal of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to deploy troops on the ground, for obvious reasons of appeasement, herald the heartbreaking end of the democratic parenthesis for the Ukrainian people. One of two things: Kiev will fall into the hands of Moscow, which will install a government of convenience, or else the territory will be partitioned even more than it already is for the benefit of Russia’s interests. Either way, fierce armed resistance is to be expected from the Ukrainians.
The invasion of Ukraine is one of those “9/11 moments,” in that it ushers in a new era in global geopolitics. With the tacit support of China, Russia considers itself legitimate to expand its sphere of influence in the former satellites of the Union of Socialist and Soviet Republics (USSR), including Russian President Vladimir Putin. never accepted the implosion. We are witnessing as much the revenge of Russia’s imperial history as a virulent questioning of the liberal world order created in the ruins of the Second World War.
Some observers will say that the Western allies did not take seriously enough the demands of Russia, which was calling for a brake on the expansion of NATO, but this dispute could still be settled through the diplomatic channels that Putin compromised by invading Ukraine. His pretexts, each more fallacious than the last, show that he dreamed of having a fight with the West through gun diplomacy.
The brutal reconfiguration of the balance of power could weaken NATO and the European Union (EU) to the point of rendering them ineffective in moderating Russia’s ambitions. Canada has done well by supporting economic sanctions against Russia and by committing to financial and military support for Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden values international cooperation bodies and multilateralism, while his predecessor constantly demolished them. For Canada, there is an opportunity to seize to reaffirm its support for NATO, the EU and its main ally, the United States, while Trumpism rumbles, thankfully, on the sidelines. This involves supporting the allies in the gradual tightening of sanctions, including the freezing of Vladimir Putin’s personal assets, announced Friday by the White House and immediately supported by Ottawa.
Without a show of unity and firmness from Western allies, the movement of hostility against liberalism will grow in intensity, including in democratic regimes where populism has married fake news to lay the foundations for their slow agony. .
Canada has all the more to lose from the weakening of its allies across the Atlantic since Putin’s threats do not stop at the borders of old Europe. He speaks of the Arctic as of Ukraine. This is another region of the globe that he considers to be within Moscow’s “zone of influence”. Under the Liberals, Canada has lost interest in Arctic sovereignty, while Russia is busy planting symbolic flags, opening military bases and conducting naval maneuvers on future maritime trade routes that will will open, alas, due to climate change. After Ukraine, Canada must seriously reassess the threat from Russia.