It’s a thunderclap. The National Rally achieves a historic breakthrough in the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 19, and obtains 90 seats. Together!, the coalition of parties that support Emmanuel Macron, obtains 234 seats at the Palais-Bourbon, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and the parliamentary channels. Far behind the 289 seats allowing to win the absolute majority.
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The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) becomes the second political force in the National Assembly, with 141 seats. The Republicans collect 75. But beyond the distribution of seats, here are the lessons of this second round.
Abstention remains very strong
At the national level, abstention stands at 54% in the second round, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate. This is the second highest rate, after the record recorded five years ago, during the 2017 elections, when 57.36% of voters shunned the ballot box.
This figure confirms the heavy trend, observed since the beginning of the Fifth Republic: the disinterest of the French for the legislative elections. Twenty years ago, abstention did not exceed 40%. In 2012, it amounted to 44.60%. Since then, it has climbed 10 points.
The National Rally achieves a historic score
No qualifier is too strong for Jordan Bardella, acting president of the National Rally, who evokes a “tsunami” of his party. The far-right formation obtains 90 seats in the National Assembly and can form a parliamentary group. This is the second time he has succeeded after the election in 1986, where he obtained 35 deputies thanks to a proportional election.
“The people have decided to send a very powerful parliamentary group of RN deputies to the Assembly, which thus becomes a little more national.”
Marine Le Penat a press conference
Marine Le Pen has, moreover, been largely re-elected in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. The political formation of the 2022 presidential finalist, qualified in the first round in 208 constituenciesgreatly improved its score compared to 2017 where only eight elected officials were able to enter the Palais-Bourbon. “We have achieved the three objectives that we had set ourselves: to make Emmanuel Macron a minority president (…), to pursue the essential political reorganization (…) and to constitute a decisive opposition group against the deconstructors of above, the macronists, and the deconstructors from below, this anti-republican extreme left”, added Marine Le Pen.
By refusing any alliance with Reconquête!, the party of Eric Zemmour, the RN had confidence in its dynamics after the already historic score obtained by Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election in April (41.45%, against 33 .9% in 2017). The RN will therefore be able to weigh in the national political debate with a view to the presidential election of 2027.
Together ! fails to win an absolute majority
“It’s a disappointing first place, but a first place.” On France 2, the government spokesperson, Olivia Grégoire, did not hide her disappointment. Lhe presidential coalition Together! won only 234 seats, far from the 289 necessary to obtain an absolute majority. The wave of 2017, when 350 LREM and Modem deputies won in the second round, is a long way off.
Like Michel Rocard in 1988, Elisabeth Borne can only rely on a relative majority. A result that opens “the possibility of a hindered, hindered government, which cannot carry out all the reforms it wishes”explained to franceinfo the constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier.
On certain hot topics, such as pension reform, it will be necessary “show a lot of imagination” to act, estimated the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire. “We will deal with all those who want to move the country forward, the hand is outstretched”assured Olivia Grégoire.
The Nupes becomes the first opposition force
The alliance of left-wing parties carried out a “incredible breakthrough”, in the words of the deputy of La France insoumise (LFI) Clémentine Autain. The Nupes gets 141 parliamentary seats. In detail, LFI obtains 79 seats, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts 25, the Socialist Party 25 and finally the Communist Party, 12. The Ecologists therefore find a parliamentary group five years after having lost it.
Faced with his activists, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was delighted with the “total rout” of the presidential party. He castigated “moral failure” members of the majority “who constantly lectured everyone and who claimed to be the dam on the far right and whose main result was to have strengthened their ranks”.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon also recalled, Sunday evening, that there would be no rapprochement with the group Together! “There is no divide to overcome with us because we are not from the same world (…). We do not have the same values”he insisted.
Three candidate ministers beaten
The government is already promised a reshuffle: some of its members, unsuccessful candidates on Sunday, have automatically resigned according to a tacit rule imposed by the Elysée. Thus, the Ministry of Health and Prevention will have a new host after the defeat of Brigitte Bourguignon in the 6th district of Pas-de-Calais, against the RN candidate, Christine Engrand. The Secretary of State for the Sea, Justine Benin, was beaten in the 2nd constituency of Guadeloupe by Christian Baptiste (DVG), supported by Nupes. Amélie de Montchalin fails to get elected in the 6th district of Essonne. The Minister of Ecological Transition is beaten by the socialist Jérôme Guedj who himself announced his victory on Sunday evening.
In addition, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, was elected deputy of Calvados with 52.46% of the votes against Noé Gauchard (Nupes). Just like some of his ministers. After a campaign marked by accusations of rape against him, Damien Abad was re-elected for his third term in Ain. Ten other members of the government also obtain a seat: Olivier Dussopt (Labour), Marc Fesneau (Agriculture), Olivier Véran, (Relations with Parliament), Stanislas Guerini (Transformation and Public Service), Gabriel Attal (Action and Public Accounts), Olivia Grégoire (government spokesperson), Franck Riester (Foreign trade) Yaël Braun-Pivet, (Overseas), Clément Beaune (in charge of European Affairs), Gérald Darmanin (Interior).
The inhabitants of Tourcoing and the Vallée de Lys have just elected me with 57.52% of the vote! A big thank you to them who thus reward our local presence and our national political will. @VincentLedoux59
— Gérald DARMANIN (@GDarmanin) June 19, 2022
Several top names in Macronie lose their seats
Among the macronie figures ejected from their chairs is the outgoing President of the Assembly, Richard Ferrand. He recognized his defeat in the 6th constituency of Finistère against Mélanie Thomin (Nupes). Former Sports Minister Roxana Maracineanu bowed to chambermaid and trade unionist Rachel Keke, in the 7th constituency of Val-de-Marne. The former Minister for Equality between Women and Men, Elisabeth Moreno, failed to be elected in the 9th constituency of French people living abroad.
I take note of the results of the legislative elections for the 9th constituency of French nationals living abroad.
I would like to congratulate Karim Ben Cheikh for his victory and to thank those who placed their trust in us.
— Elisabeth Moreno (@1ElisaMoreno) June 19, 2022
The outgoing deputy of the presidential majority and general rapporteur for the Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, was defeated in the second round of the 3rd constituency of Val-de-Marne. As for the president of the LREM group in the National Assembly, Christophe Castaner, he was beaten in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence by Léo Walter (Nupes).
I note the result in my constituency with great sadness.
This mandate has allowed me to be at the service of our territory, which I love passionately. Thank you to those who trusted me.
I wish the best to Léo Walter and to our Alpes-de-Haute-Provence.— Christophe Castaner (@CCastaner) June 19, 2022
The right is plucked, but it could be courted
The LR-UDI-DVD alliance won only 75 deputies on the evening of the second round and therefore lost around sixty seats in the new Assembly. In 2017, faced with the Macronist wave, the right had finished the second round with nearly 27% of the vote and 136 deputies in the Hemicycle. Despite this setback, the Republican right will be able to play a crucial role in the Assembly when the presidential majority seeks reinforcements. The president of LR, Christian Jacob, has already warned: “As far as we are concerned, we campaigned in opposition, we are in opposition, we will remain in opposition.”