For Emmanuel Macron and his supporters, the issue of the legislative elections of June 12 and 19 boils down to one danger: to avoid “the electoral accident”, as formulated by the boss of MoDem deputies, Patrick Mignola, on Monday, May 30. This would result, on the evening of the second round, in the loss of the absolute majority in the National Assembly, a prospect that the Macronists have long evacuated after the clear re-election of the Head of State on April 24.
Week after week, in a sluggish campaign, the specter of a poor performance in the legislative elections has grown within the presidential majority, to the point of hampering the candidates on the ground. So that five days before the ballot, faced with the dynamics of the Nupes, the omnipresence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon or even dissent, the camp of Emmanuel Macron began to doubt.
1The breakthrough of the Nupes among the French abroad
The presidential majority knows its main adversary in the legislative elections: the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). As proof, this new alliance of the left, from the Socialist Party to the Communist Party via La France insoumise and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, provided a first demonstration of force, Sunday, June 5. A week before the first round of the legislative elections, the Nupes succeeded in qualifying its candidates in ten of the eleven constituencies of French people living abroad. This is twice as much as five years earlier, when the left presented itself in dispersed order.
Even if the vote transfers seem more favorable to the presidential majority to win these constituencies at the end of the second round, La République en Marche will have to face a united and invigorated left opposition, which was not the case during the presidential election and the last legislative elections.
2The omnipresence of the first opponent Mélenchon in the face of the wavering of the executive
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon Prime Minister.” Throughout France, the face of the leader of La France insoumise will be visible on the thousands of posters of the candidates of the Nupes, stuck on the electoral panels. In a few weeks, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has succeeded in imposing his status as first opponent… and potential Prime Minister, without even personally submitting to the votes on June 12 and 19. “In the media and in the polls, the only one that exists today, apart from the presidential majority, is Jean-Luc Mélenchon”recognized the LREM deputy for Yvelines Aurore Bergé, on France 2.
By occupying the political and media terrain, the Nupes is trying to impose its campaign project, in the face of a majority in full swing. After the long composition of the government, the executive did not have time to take advantage of any “grace period”: it was immediately overtaken by the accusations of rape against the new Minister of Solidarity, Damien Abad. A few days later, it was the chaotic management of the Champions League final at the Stade de France that fueled criticism of the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin.
“When you distribute your leaflets in a market, no Parisian subject should come and interfere with yousummed up a figure from the LREM campaign in early June. A candidate needs to be given energy, not taken away from him.” Gold “with the image that France gave to the eyes of the world last Saturday [le 28 mai, jour de la finale de la Ligue des champions]it is: people are talking about it”, notes this source with franceinfo. Faced with these difficulties and a few days before the first round, Emmanuel Macron ended up really entering the campaign with an interview with the regional press and field trips.
3Delicate polls for LREM, with an absolute majority questioned
Can the Republic on the move, with its MoDem and Horizons allies, lose an absolute majority on Sunday, June 19? Even if they only very partially reflect the reality of the 577 local elections, the polls show a presidential camp neck and neck with the Nupes in number of votes, in a configuration very different from 2017 and the legislative elections then without pitfalls for Emmanuel Macron.
Above all, the projections in seats (which are however to be taken with great caution), show a gradual decline in the number of deputies that the outgoing majority would obtain on the evening of the second round. Last week, an Elabe poll for BFMTV and The Express showed for the first time an uncertain majority for the candidates favorable to the government. They would thus be between 275 and 315 parliamentarians Together in the new National Assembly, while the absolute majority is at 289 deputies. According to a recent Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, the Macronist bloc could only have 250 to 290 deputies.
4The many dissidences that can cause problems
In addition to its opponents from the left, right or extreme right, the Together coalition has to face dissidence in certain constituencies. These are likely to weaken the candidates officially invested in this election, by fragmenting the centrist electorate. In the 9th constituency of French people living abroad, former minister Elisabeth Moreno, for example, had to face a dissident candidate, and finds herself outdistanced by almost 12 points by her opponent Nupes before the second round.
This is also the case of the former socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls, candidate invested by Ensemble and eliminated in the first round, while the dissident Stéphane Vojetta, criticized by LREM executives, finally received the support of the party leadership after his qualifications. A total of 91 members of La République en Marche were expelled for dissent at the end of May.