Brazilians began voting on Sunday for the second round of a presidential election with a very uncertain outcome between the left-wing ex-head of state Lula, and the far-right incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is hot on his heels in polls.
The campaign between two opposing leaders took place in a brutal and ultra-polarized climate that saw them insult each other copiously while social networks carried torrents of misinformation.
Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (11 a.m. GMT) and will close at 5 p.m. (8 p.m. GMT). The name of the president of the huge Latin American country with 215 million inhabitants will be known within two or three hours.
One of the first voters to vote in Copacabana, a tourist district of Rio, Marcio Britto, a 52-year-old unemployed man, hopes that this election “will make it possible to improve the situation of the Brazilian people a little”, especially “health, education and security.
If the polls have been predicting for months a third four-year term for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, after those of 2003-2010, Jair Bolsonaro, 67, can still believe it.
According to the latest Datafolha survey on Saturday evening, the gap narrowed, with Lula winning 52% / 48%. The margin of error is +/- 2 points and the polls had heavily underestimated Bolsonaro’s score in the 1st round.
“It’s a lot tighter than anyone would have thought,” Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly, told AFP, “it’s going to be a confusing election.”
Will Bolsonaro accept the result if he is the first president running for a second term not to be re-elected since the return to democracy in 1985?
After launching relentless attacks on the “fraudulent” system of electronic ballot boxes, he said on Friday: “Whoever has the most votes wins. It’s democracy” — without convincing.
“Bolsonaro will question the result,” said Rogerio Dultra dos Santos, of the Federal University of Fluminense.
” Liar “
Many fear a Brazilian replica of the assault on Capitol Hill after the defeat of Donald Trump which could target, for example, the Supreme Court so often vilified by Bolsonaro.
The ex-captain can count on “the support of his most radicalized voters […] and cause unrest”, according to the analyst, who however does not see the armed forces embarking on a coup de force and underlines that the democratic institutions are solid.
Trump, precisely, called on Brazilians to re-elect Bolsonaro, “a great guy”, and especially not “Lulu (sic), this crackpot from the radical left”.
But the former metalworker with an extraordinary destiny hoped that Bolsonaro “will have a moment of wisdom” and “recognize the result” if he loses.
The campaign was anything but “wise”. Bolsonaro insulted Lula: “thief”, “ex-prisoner”, “alcoholic” or “national disgrace”. The latter returned the blows: “pedophile”, “cannibal”, “genocidal” or “little dictator”.
Accusing each other of lying, Bolsonaro and, to a lesser extent Lula, fueled the disinformation machine, which worked like never before in Brazil.
Social networks – the sole source of information for the majority of the 170 million Brazilian users – have conveyed an unprecedented mass of false information.
With this dirty campaign, the real concerns of the population have been neglected: inflation, unemployment, poverty or hunger, from which 33 million Brazilians suffer.
Hunt for abstainers
The major challenge between the two rounds was the hunt for the 32 million abstainers from the 1st round (21%). By comparison, Lula got a six million vote lead on October 2.
Lula wants to protect democracy and make “Brazil happy” again, after two terms in which he lifted nearly 30 million Brazilians out of poverty but where the economy was booming.
Populist Bolsonaro wants to defend “good against evil”, family, God, homeland and individual freedom.
Despite a mandate enamelled by serious crises including that of COVID-19, he retains a base of diehard supporters and has been able to impose his political line in the face of a barely audible left and a traditional right which has foundered.
If elected, Lula, a key figure in Brazilian politics for four decades, will make a spectacular comeback after experiencing disgrace in prison (2018-2019) and then the cancellation of his convictions for corruption.
The next tenant of the Planalto Palace in Brasilia will govern with an even more right-wing Parliament since the legislative elections of October 2: Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) is represented in force.
Polling stations must close at 5:00 p.m. (8:00 p.m. GMT) and the result be announced by 8:00 p.m. (23:00 GMT).