(Rio de Janeiro) His government finally in order of battle, the left-wing Brazilian president Lula begins Sunday a 3e mandate full of challenges: bringing together a fractured country, bringing it back into the concert of nations and fighting poverty and hunger with a flagging economy.
A “Herculean task” awaits at the head of the large emerging country of 215 million inhabitants Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, warned its vice-president Geraldo Alckmin.
According to Lula’s transition team, four years of “irresponsible management” under Jair Bolsonaro have put Brazil in a sorry state: “situation of shortage” and “backsliding” in many sectors – social policies, education , health, environment.
Lula’s government was the longest to form in 32 years. It took weeks of thorny negotiations to accommodate the left-wing allies who won his election, but also the center whose support he will need in Congress.
The Chamber and Senate resulting from the October elections are even further to the right than before, which does not mean that the pragmatic Lula will not be able to govern, thanks to his alliances from the far left to the center right.
“Make Brazil happy”
But Lula takes the head of a country cut in two where 58 million voters did not vote for him. Two months after his election, radical Bolsonarists are still camped outside the barracks and are demanding military intervention.
The victory of the one who wants to “make Brazil happy again” was narrow: 50.9% of the vote only, 49.1% for his far-right opponent.
Lula must also pacify relations with the Supreme Court, a pillar of democracy violently shaken by the attacks of Jair Bolsonaro. Even before taking office, future Justice Minister Flavio Dino reached out to his judges.
Lula’s first steps will focus on the environment, education and ethnic equality, if he follows the recommendations of his transition team. He should also restrict the possession of weapons, which exploded under Bolsonaro.
Internationally, a Lula often popular abroad will have to reconcile Brazil with all the countries hit by his predecessor.
The transition team observed “Brazil’s loss of prestige” and Brasila owes nearly one billion euros (1.45 billion Canadian dollars) to various international institutions, including the UN.
The international community expects Lula to make quick and strong gestures on the climate and the environment after the destruction of the Bolsonaro era, with the Amazon in the lead. Thursday, he appointed Minister of the Environment a personality with an international aura, Marina Silva.
“We will do whatever it takes to achieve zero deforestation and the degradation of our ecosystems by 2030,” Lula promised in November before COP27.
But to restore Brazil’s credibility, it will have to re-establish the supervisory bodies and fight against all illegal activities, while sparing the powerful Brazilian agro-dealing lobby.
Budget challenge
Finally, the economic and social situation will constitute a major challenge for Lula, whose “priority is to take care of the poorest”.
The approval by Congress of a constitutional amendment (PEC) which will allow him to finance his campaign promises for at least one year was good news.
The payment of the popular “Bolsa familia” (600 reais – 159 CAN dollars – per month to the poorest families) will escape the ceiling on public spending, and Lula will also be able to increase the minimum wage.
Some 125 million Brazilians suffer from food insecurity, and 30 million from hunger.
But the PEC “is not going to solve its biggest challenge of the next few years, the budgetary question”, estimates Joelson Sampaio, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
Lula will “increase spending without the prospect of (increase in) equivalent revenue, while trying not to raise taxes”, says Mr. Sampaio, while the markets fear an explosion, under this leftist government, of a debt already at 77% of GDP.
For Alex Agostini, chief economist at Austin Rating, “the new administration will have to propose an effective budgetary control framework” in order to “avoid” a loss of confidence which would have a domino effect on the economy.
“Another challenge will be the continued fall in unemployment (8.3%, the lowest since 2015, editor’s note) and the control of inflation, in a context of slowdown in the global economy”, notes Mr. Agostini .
Economic concerns had been the priority of the former metalworker’s voters.