Brazil’s President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began defining the contours of his future government on Monday for a third term that promises to be full of challenges in a deeply divided country.
Elected on October 30 by a short head against outgoing far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, Lula, 77, returned to the blue after taking a few days off in Bahia (northeast) with the future First lady, Rosangela da Silva, after a grueling campaign.
Less than two months before his inauguration, on January 1, the icon of the left began the week with a first meeting with his team in charge of the transition until the transfer of power.
And “on Wednesday, he will be in Brasília” to closely support the transition under the coordination of Vice-President-elect Geraldo Alckmin, an adviser to the transition team told AFP, assuring that the “agenda” of the meetings in the capital “is not yet closed”.
In Brasília, he must notably meet the very influential Artur Lira, president of the Chamber of Deputies who was close to Jair Bolsonaro during his mandate.
Keeping “promises”
Parliament’s support will be fundamental for one of the first major challenges of the future left-wing government: to approve exceptional expenditure for the payment of social minima.
Lula has notably pledged to maintain the Auxilio Brasil, an allowance paid to the poorest, at 600 reais (about 160 Canadian dollars), even if this amount is not provided for in next year’s budget.
“We cannot start 2023 without the Auxilio Brasil (at 600 reais), without a real increase in the minimum wage. These are promises made to voters and the ballot box has spoken,” said Gleisi Hoffmann, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), on Friday.
Intense negotiations are already underway for the authorization to exceed the spending ceiling which must be approved by parliamentarians before December 15.
This will be no small feat in the two chambers where Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) is the largest group.
Lula should nevertheless be able to deal with the “Centrao”, a nebula of centrist parties that have been raining and shining in Parliament for decades, most often allying with the government in place, not without cashing in their support for important positions .
Several leaders of these parties who had allied themselves with the Bolsonaro government have shown themselves open to dialogue with the elected president on the left.
Reconciling budget and social ambitions
During his campaign, Lula surfed on the nostalgia of the golden years of his first two terms (2003-2010), without detailing how he intends to govern Brazil for the next four years.
He will face the same challenges as other left-wing leaders who recently came to power in Latin America, explains political scientist Leandro Consentino, professor at Insper in Sao Paulo.
That is to say, “how to articulate budgetary rigor with an expected left-wing social agenda”, in a context of inflation, high unemployment and a possible recession.
The economic situation is far from being as favorable as during the 2000s, when Lula was able to carry out ambitious social programs thanks to the boom in raw materials.
Lula has pledged to reconcile “budgetary, social responsibility and sustainable development”, but the business community is firmly awaiting his first announcements, in particular the names of the economic team of the future government.
Unlike Bolsonaro, who has created a “super-ministry” of the economy, Lula plans to split the portfolio into three: finance, planning and industry, and trade.
On to COP27
Lula will not wait for his inauguration to give the international community pledges of his commitment to the fight against deforestation in the Amazon and is due to go next week to COP27, in Sharm el-Sheikh, at the invitation of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah. al-Sissi.
“The climate issue is a top strategic priority,” Marina Silva, former environment minister, who will accompany Lula to Egypt, told the daily Folha de S. Paulo.
She is expected to take over this ministry, after four years of Bolsonaro government marked by a sharp increase in deforestation and fires in the largest rainforest on the planet.
The preservation of the Amazon will be fundamental “for Brazil to recover its credibility with the international community” and initial trade agreements such as that between the European Union and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Venezuela), believes André César, analyst at the consultancy firm Hold.
with Marcelo Silva de Sousa, in Brasília