Brazil | An election under high tension

An outgoing president who casts doubt on possible electoral fraud. A country plagued by division. An extremist fringe fed on misinformation. In Brazil, the presidential election is taking place under high tension. And recalls the last ballot in the United States, with the fear of violence inspired by the assault on the American Capitol.

Janie Gosselin
The Press

Fear of election violence

On September 9, Benedito Cardoso dos Santos, a 42-year-old man, was killed with an ax and a knife in central-western Brazil. A 24-year-old colleague confessed to the attack following a political dispute: the 40-year-old supported left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, while the young man was a supporter of the far-right incumbent president , Jair Bolsonaro.

This murder, like that in July of a representative of Lula’s party by a Bolsonarist policeman, is an extreme example of the polarization in Brazil. But the fear of violence linked to political disagreements is widespread, as the first round of the presidential election will take place on Sunday.

The outgoing president is second in the polls – which he disputes – behind former President Lula. He cited rumors of electoral fraud if he is not re-elected, questioning the reliability of the fully electronic voting system. Remarks refuted by the experts, but which nevertheless stirred up his supporters.

“Trump of the tropics”

The Superior Electoral Court has banned the carrying of weapons in polling stations and within 100 m around, in the 48 hours before Sunday’s vote and 24 hours after, except for the police. The Supreme Court has temporarily suspended some gun sales.

Nothing to please Jair Bolsonaro, a great defender of weapons. Since his election in 2018, he has facilitated access to guns for hunters and sport shooters, with the help of a dozen decrees. His son, MP Eduardo Bolsonaro, took to Twitter to invite Brazilians in legal possession of a firearm to volunteer in his father’s campaigns.

” [La défense de la possession d’armes à feu] is something built by a far-right movement, which is actually based on a movement in the United States,” says Ana Julia Bonzanini Bernardi, associate professor at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation, over the phone. Paolo.

Like the former US president, Jair Bolsonaro was elected as a candidate outside the political system, seducing a conservative segment of the population with his outspokenness and his defense of guns, associated with an idea of ​​​​manhood and freedom. He is also an evangelical who punctuates his speeches with religious references and is particularly tough on ethnic minorities, the media, women and the LGBTQ+ community.

Disinformation

If Bolsonaro is often compared to Trump, it is also for the fervor of his supporters, wary of traditional media and active on social networks. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has opened investigations into the current president for disinformation.

“Fake news was really a big phenomenon during the 2018 election, when Bolsonaro was elected to the government,” notes Ms.^me Bonzanini Bernardi, who published a book on disinformation during the last campaign. She feels that people are more seasoned today. Measures have also been put in place to counter the phenomenon of misinformation.

Army

The role of the armed forces in the event of popular uprisings and riots also raises questions, 37 years after the end of a military dictatorship. Jair Bolsonaro, former captain, has supporters in the ranks.

“We don’t know if the military will support Bolsonaro or not,” said Pedro Benetti, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Violence at Rio de Janeiro State University. “What we heard from the Minister of Defense, who is very close to Bolsonaro, are doubts about the voting system. »

Mr. de Carvalho, himself a former lieutenant, believes that the army “will have an institutional response”. However, he wonders what could happen if the security forces fail to contain a violent crowd: will Jair Bolsonaro authorize the use of the army against his own supporters?

“If he does, he brings the military even more into the political arena, for which he is already criticized, he underlines. If he does not, he can also be accused of abandoning the [sécurité] Population. »

A total of 12 candidates compete in the first round on October 2. If none collects more than 50% of the votes, a second round will take place on October 30.

“Voting day will be very tense, in any case, but if we have a second round, it will be quite a tense month of October in Brazil”, launches Mr. Benetti.

With the Associated Press and Agence France-Presse

Hunger hits Brazilians

The price spike has hit Brazil hard. More than 33 million people today suffer from hunger, unable to afford three meals a day.

“The economy is really top of the minds of Brazilians in the polls,” says Pedro Benetti, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Violence at Rio de Janeiro State University.

Latin America’s largest economy was removed from the World Food Program (WFP) Hunger Map in 2014. An economic boom and social programs lifted 30 million people out of poverty under the governments of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, today at the top of the polls, who hammers the failure in this area of ​​his far-right opponent, outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro.

The country re-entered the World Food Program (WFP) map last year, as more than one in four people experience “moderate or severe food insecurity”.

“All the social inequalities that have increased in the last four years have brought out several fears,” said Ana Julia Bonzanini Bernardi, associate professor at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation. Brazil was seen as an emerging country, a country of the future, but Brazilians no longer feel that. »

Health is also one of the issues worrying Brazilians, as COVID-19 has wreaked havoc in the country, where more than 685,600 people have died and more than 34.6 million have tested positive. President Bolsonaro has denied the seriousness of COVID-19, calling it a “little flu”.

Social networks

The candidates, and particularly Jair Bolsonaro, make extensive use of social networks to relay their messages. About 50 million subscribers follow the outgoing president on different platforms.

The Superior Electoral Tribunal is engaged in a fight against misinformation. A colossal task in a country of 213 million inhabitants.

Various social networks have agreed to participate in the fight against disinformation, which remains difficult. The newspaper O Globo for example, recently identified around thirty videos spreading false information on the TikTok network, with more than 15 million views.

Corruption, the battle horse that brought Jair Bolsonaro to power in 2018, is no longer at the top of Brazilians’ concerns in the polls.

In a televised debate, he accused Lula’s government, in power from 2003 to 2010, of having been “the most corrupt in the history of Brazil”. The former president was detained for over a year in 2018-2019, after a bribery conviction that was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2021, which found the first court had no jurisdiction.

Environment

If the environment is not the priority for most voters, the protection of the Amazon is one of the themes dear to opponents of Jair Bolsonaro. During his four-year term, deforestation on the Brazilian side increased by 75% compared to the previous decade, while he promoted mining and agricultural activity in protected areas.

An issue particularly dear to indigenous peoples, also victims of several deadly attacks in recent years.

With Agence France-Presse