Today the republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, born of the Dayton accords in 1995, is divided into two distinct units, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serbian Republika Srpska. By these American agreements, the country is headed by a High Representative of the United Nations, the German Christian Schmidt, and led by a collegial presidency with three presidents, the Croatian Željko Komšić, the Serbian Milorad Dodik and the Muslim Šefik Džaferović, four parliamentary assemblies, 10 cantons with one parliament per canton, that is in all 14 parliaments and around 135 ministers.
A US armed force is stationed there, EUROFOR, 600 men whose mandate has been renewed for 12 months. Finally, the inhabitants of Bosnia and Herzegovina are Bosnians, the Bosnians being the Muslims of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Thus are officially represented the Serbian community of Orthodox faith, the Croatian community of Catholic faith and the Bosnian community of Muslim faith, these three entities ruling the country.
But other communities exist, such as the Jewish community or the Roma community, but apart from the three actors at state level, Serbian, Croatian and Bosnian, the others have little say in the matter. Finally, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a member of the Council of Europe, but unfortunately this country is dominated by widespread corruption of the elites of all communities.
As our guest, Zehra Sikias, a Bosnian journalist and documentary filmmaker, explained to us, the Dayton accords made it possible to end the fighting by giving a little power to each side, but in fact it was more of a ceasefire. fire, not the end of the war, which could resume at any time, is what is said in so-called “authorized” circles. And if the country ever entered into an internal conflict, the entire Balkan region would be affected, namely the closest and weakest states, Kosovo, Montenegro and so-called North Macedonia.
Only Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia could be the least affected, although concerned, but having the means to protect their borders. There remains a question mark, Albania, well surrounded geographically by the former Yugoslav republics. What would be the position of very active Albania in the daily life of Kosovo, a former Serbian province?
Today all the fears come from the President of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik. Milorad Dodik has been in a strong desire for secession since last summer. The case dates back to July 2021 when the High Representative of the United Nations imposed a law prohibiting the apology for war crimes, which sparked a real outcry in the country, especially from Serbian nationalists, compared to the denial of their share that genocide was committed in Srebrenica in 1995.
It must be said that today Bosnia-Herzegovina is shaken by the nationalists of the three communities. But, in fact, last August the Republika Srpska withdrew from the armed forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, wishing to create its own armed force, also leaving the National Security Agency and the Bosnian Herzegovinian Health Agency. Serbian secession has become a reality that makes people fear the return of armed conflict.
Moreover, since last summer, the Bosnians have been emptying their bank accounts and purchasing provisions. It must be said that President Milorad Dodik, in power for two decades, is a past master in the matter of upsetting the Bosnian news, but this time again, the country could well “plunge” definitively into the abyss.
Historically, since 1995, the Serbia of President Aleksandar Vučić has always supported the Republika Srpska, just as Croatia has supported the Croatian community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but unlike Serbia, Croatia today is ruled by a Social Democratic President Zoran Milanović and a Conservative Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. If the two men come from the seraglio of the Croatian Foreign Ministry, Milanović, passed by NATO in Brussels, is considered rather fiery, and very often unpredictable, while Plenković, whom everyone calls Plenki, is a Florentine diplomat. coupled with an experience of MEP, so the European institutions are in no way foreign to him.
Moreover concerning the Croatian question, Milorad Dodik is supported in his secessionist approach by Dragan Covic, the leader of the Croatian nationalists of Bosnia-Herzegovina, because the Croatian secession also exists in Bosnia-Herzegovina. which would result in a Croatian separation within the country. But apart from these very ethnic supports, other actors have entered the game of Bosnia and Herzegovina. First of all, the Russia of Vladimir Putin, closely linked to Serbia by orthodoxy, the Cyrillic culture, a rapprochement that is not yesterday, and which is noted in certain international institutions such as the Council of Europe.
Another actor, the Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, not far from Moscow – we can see him today with the Polish-Belarusian question – is always ready to come “to help” his fellow Muslims. Thus, after having made charming and courteous visits to Kosovo or Skopje, the Turkish president tries to seduce the Bosnians, and recently received Bakir Izetbegovic, Muslim, member of the College of the Assembly of the Peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bakir being the son of Alija, former President of the Presidential College of Bosnia and Herzegovina (February 14-October 14, 2000), and former President of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina (December 20, 1990-05 October 1996).
But Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not only appeals to Bosnians, he also recently received the President of the RepubliKa Srspka, Milorad Dodik.
Finally, there are two other regional players, the Hungarian Viktor Orban and the Slovenian Janez Jansa, president of the Slovenian government, who is chairing the European Union until next December.
For Viktor Orban, visiting his friend Dodik on Saturday, November 7, it is understood, Budapest “supports” the approach of the president of Republika Srpska, but also very close to Viktor Orban, the president of the Slovenian government Janez Jansa, who, would be assigned a “non paper”, a document not being official, released in April 2021, which would relate to a rectification of the borders in the Balkans.
Bosnia-Herzegovina would be divided between a Serbian and a Croatian part, the Bosnians would thus have a triangle-shaped territory between Sarajevo, Zenica, north-west of Sarajevo, and Tuzla, north of Sarajevo. It must be said that today, the Republika Srpska grips Bosnia-Herzegovina between the north and the east of the country.
As for the European institutions, let’s say that they are still and always on the balcony, watching the spectacle unfold before their eyes, as they did concerning the wars in Yugoslavia in 1991, 30 years ago …