“He will have a lot of difficulty staying in power in the weeks to come”estimates Monday June 6 on franceinfo Dominic Grieve, former Conservative MP (1997-2019), expelled from the party in 2019 for having voted against having voted against Boris Johnson, former Attorney General (Chief Government Legal Adviser, under David Cameron) and President of the Franco-British Society. Current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a motion of no confidence from his party, the Conservative Party, after the partygate scandal.
Presumably, Boris Johnson should not lose his post on Monday. But Dominic Grieve predicts that if they keep Boris Johnson in Downing Street, “the conservatives are going to be beaten and humiliated in the general election which will take place in 2024.”
franceinfo: Boris Johnson should in principle not be overthrown tonight but this motion of no confidence will further weaken him politically?
Dominic Grieve: Yes. Unless he wins in a dazzling fashion with a small number of rebels against him. But I think he’s going to have a lot of trouble staying in power in the weeks to come.
We remember Theresa May in 2018, who had the same motion against her and then resigned a few months later. Do you see the same scenario repeating itself?
I believe it is quite possible. Because even if he will survive today, in two weeks we have by-elections in two ridings. They are held by conservatives and in both cases I believe that the conservatives will lose. This will add a notch of difficulty for him. And in my opinion, the story of “partygate” and its conduct will not be forgotten.
“Boris Johnson is now creating a really quite negative force with the electorate. And I don’t see why that would change.”
Dominic Grieve, former MPat franceinfo
However, Boris Johnson seems to have gone through crises since his arrival at 10 Downing Street. And each time, for the moment, he comes out of it.
He often gets away with it but I think there comes a time when you can’t get out of it anymore. Last week Tory MPs returning to their constituencies during Queen Elizabeth II’s Golden Jubilee received unflattering comments from their constituents about Boris Johnson. Besides, I believe that is why he now has such difficulties and I do not see why public opinion will change in his opinion. In this case, members will have a very difficult choice to make. They can of course keep Johnson in Downing Street but I believe there is growing certainty that if they do, the Tories will be beaten and humiliated in the general election to be held in 2024.
What may save Boris Johnson is that the Tories are struggling to find him a successor?
That’s obvious. I also think they feel very divided, and in a way Johnson’s presence masks their divisions. This is another reason why they were paralyzed and unable to act against him. So, you are right from that point of view, it is possible that because of this cause Johnson will remain in Downing Street. But that should be very worrying for MPs because if they keep Johnson they are going to be in big trouble in the next election in 2024.