I have good news and bad news on the employment side. The good news: Quebec has multiplied paying jobs during the pandemic. The bad: most vacancies will never be filled, even with immigration, because they’re mostly McJobs, left behind.
This is what emerges from a study by the Institut du Québec (IDQ) made public today. The study carried out by Luc Belzile, Emna Braham and Daye Diallo, among others, compares the labor market of 2022 – essentially post-pandemic – with that of 2019, i.e. before the major confinements.
First observation, which will please François Legault: the number of jobs paid $30 or more per hour jumped by 43% between 2019 and 2022, or 531,900. The jump is particularly significant in the professional services sector, scientific and technical – where we find computer scientists and engineers – as well as in finance, education and construction.
Conversely, the number of jobs paid less than $20 an hour fell by 40%, or 465,500. The retail trade and restaurant sectors were particularly hard hit. In short, many of the sectors that suffered during the pandemic have not recovered the jobs lost, often less well paid.
The transformation is significant and “these changes are here to stay, with the return to normal after the pandemic”, says Ms.me Braham, CEO of IDQ.
Overall, in 2022, Quebec had 129,800 more jobs than in 2019, which corresponds to an increase of 3%. This increase is not ugly, but it is significantly below the Ontario average (3.7%) or that of oil provinces such as Alberta (4.2%) or Newfoundland and Labrador (5.5% ), which benefited from the rise in oil prices.
Quebec, it must be said, was in a situation of full employment at the time of the pandemic, and its pool of workers is growing less rapidly than elsewhere. “The post-pandemic recovery therefore left little room for additional job creation,” explains the study.
The public sector, driven by the needs of the pandemic, particularly in health, has seen a much greater increase in its jobs (9.8%) than the private sector (3.6%) for three years.
However, the year 2022 has seen this trend reversed, with the creation of 66,500 new jobs in the private sector, compared to 10,000 for the public sector. In December 2022, Quebec had one million jobs in the public sector, or 23% of the total number of jobs (it was 22% in 2019).
wages and inflation
Now, big question: what was the salary increase over three years compared to inflation? Once again, I have good news and bad news, so to speak.
First, the average wage increased by 17.1% between 2019 and 2022 to reach $31.87 per hour in December 2022. However, inflation was lower, especially in 2020 and 2021, so that the increase net of wages (after subtracting inflation) was 4.3% over three years.
On average, therefore, Quebecers have better purchasing power in 2022 than in 2019. So much for the good news.
The bad news, in a way? Most of this increase is not the result of an increase in the salary scale for each position, obtained after negotiation with employers, but rather of a shift in the market towards higher-paying positions, as explained above. .
Another big question: will the current economic downturn alleviate the labor shortage or, in other words, deflate the large volume of vacancies?
Nothing is less certain, believes Emna Braham, given the lack of attractiveness of the majority of vacant positions – which do not require a diploma – and the increase in the education of Quebecers.
Since 2016, the number of vacancies for which no minimum education is required has increased fivefold, reaching 88,695 in the fall of 2022. There are many more vacancies in this category today than unemployed ( 39,600).
At the other extreme, the number of job vacancies that require a university degree has tripled in the same period – rather than five – to reach 31,450 in the fall of 2022. And in this category, the unemployed are more numerous. (42,800) than vacant positions, unlike jobs that do not require a diploma.
In short, most of the vacant positions will probably never be filled, according to the study, because these are unattractive positions in a context where the labor pool in Quebec is shrinking and where Quebecers are better educated. .
Immigration will hardly change the phenomenon. First, immigrants are proportionally more likely than natives to be graduates.
Then, their employment rate is growing strongly, more than that of the population in general. This employment rate for immigrants aged 25-54 was 83% in December 2022, a jump of 6 points in three years. In comparison, the increase is 3 points for all Quebecers, to 87% in December 2022.
The solution for companies in positions that require little education is through the automation of tasks, thus improving productivity.
Will we ever see robots flipping burgers at night?