On November 22, Bitcoin reached a high of $99,830 but has since dropped over 8% to $91,377.32. Despite this, it has surged 120% in 2023, influenced by Donald Trump’s presidency and pro-crypto legislation. Market sentiment is cautious as the call-put skew index declines, indicating traders are hedging against potential price drops. With $11.8 billion in options expiring December 27, projections suggest possible price shifts, including a 68% chance of falling to $81,493 or rising to $115,579.
Bitcoin Price Fluctuations: Recent Trends and Insights
On November 22, Bitcoin achieved an impressive peak of $99,830, yet it has since experienced a decline of over 8%, settling at $91,377.32 on Tuesday—its lowest point in a week.
This prominent cryptocurrency has witnessed a remarkable increase of 120% since the start of this year, with a notable 34% surge just this month. This upward trend has been fueled by Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States and the growing presence of pro-cryptocurrency legislators in Congress. During his campaign, Trump expressed a commitment to positioning the U.S. as the ‘crypto capital of the planet’ and proposed building a national reserve of bitcoins.
Market Sentiment and Future Projections
Nick Forster, the founder of the decentralized on-chain options protocol Derive, shared insights through an email on Tuesday, highlighting a significant 30% decline in the call-put skew index for the upcoming Bitcoin expiration on December 27. This shift indicates that market participants are adopting more cautious strategies.
The call-put skew measures market sentiment by comparing the implied volatility between call options (buy options) and put options (sell options). Although calls still dominate the market, the recent decrease points to traders hedging against potential downturns, likely in reaction to Bitcoin’s sharp price drop. ‘Such pullbacks are typical in bullish markets,’ noted Forster.
Investors are particularly focused on December 27, when $11.8 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, potentially triggering significant price movements. Forster estimates a 68% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $81,493, a 16.03% decrease, or rising by 19.9% to $115,579 by that date. Additionally, there’s a 5% chance for more extreme fluctuations, including a drop to $68,429 or a rise to $137,645.
Moreover, Derive’s data indicates an increased likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000, now at 45%, up from 34% last week, along with a 4% chance of surpassing $150,000. Forster also observed stability in Bitcoin’s volatility, reporting an implied volatility of 63% over the past week and 55% over the past month. ‘This close alignment suggests the market is anticipating significant movements in the near future.’
As Bitcoin currently grapples with its recent high, market players attribute this decline to typical profit-taking behavior. Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, referred to an analysis from _checkonchain.com, which reveals that long-term holders have distributed $60 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last 30 days.
Since Bitcoin hit its low of $15,479 during the FTX collapse two years ago, 21% of the supply moved by long-term holders occurred in November, marking the ‘largest profit-taking we have seen so far in this cycle,’ according to a post from _checkonchain.com on X.