Even a moderate-strength earthquake would cause damage worth tens of billions of dollars on the island of Montreal, according to a new study from the University of Western Ontario.
“I don’t want to scare people,” assures Professor Katsuichiro Goda from the outset. But prepare them, because there is a risk. »
The researcher calculates that each year, the seismic zone of western Quebec has a 0.002% chance of experiencing an earthquake causing damage of $10 billion or less. However, the possibility of an even more devastating event exists depending on the strength of the earthquake.
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Professor Katsuichiro Goda of Western University in Ontario Photo courtesy of Western University
According to Mr. Goda, the region from Montreal to Ottawa is one of the most populous in the country, but also one of the least prepared for an earthquake event. Since the risk of a powerful earthquake is much greater on the Canadian west coast, British Columbia is also better equipped to limit the damage.
“There would be a lot more chaos here, and even more if it were to happen in the middle of winter,” said the risk assessment expert, recalling the recent ice storm that deprived thousands of Montrealers of power for several days.
Not insured
Not only are the vast majority of homes not built with earthquake protection in mind, but homeowners are also not insured against these risks, he argues. Governments would thus have to assume astronomical sums.
“And the risk is not that low,” says the researcher, since the region along the St. Lawrence River has experienced several seismic episodes over the last century.
Mr. Goda points out that the seismic zone of Charlevoix, the most active in Quebec, has experienced earthquakes that can reach 7 on the Richter scale and that western Quebec has also experienced moderate earthquakes, up to 6 on the same scale.
However, the great vulnerability of the buildings of the metropolis, at risk of collapsing, would cause enormous damage, reaching tens of billions of dollars.
He recalls the example of Christchurch in New Zealand, where an earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale caused approximately $70 billion in damage in 2011. The place was not considered to be high risk of an earthquake disaster before, he says, also adding that Montreal is a much bigger city.
More extreme
Earthquakes are rarer, but more extreme, warns the researcher. If the floods can be anticipated, according to the precipitations and the melting of snow, no tool manages yet precisely to announce the seismic tremors. The damage would also extend for miles, rather than a limited area.