Uttar Pradesh is the most populated region of India: 230 million inhabitants (more than three times the French population), in the north of the country, east of the capital New Delhi. The ballot, as always in India, will be spread over several weeks: it therefore starts on Thursday February 10 in the most western zone of Uttar Pradesh and will continue until March 7. Official result: March 10. The favorite is the ruling party, the BJP, which is also that of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The latest polls credit him with 200 to 240 seats, out of a total of 403. The main opposition party in the region, the Samajwadi, which claims to be socialist, nevertheless has arguments, in particular to convince the poorest, the “low castes”. The economic situation is bad: the region is one of the poorest in India, inflation is eating away at salaries, the unemployment rate has reached 25% among young people. And the pandemic has been badly managed by the Indian authorities.
And above all, there is the question of freedoms and discrimination, in particular against Muslims but this discrimination is assumed by the ruling Hindu party. Uttar Pradesh is even a laboratory for the radical religious drift of the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party. In this region, the BJP has passed several discriminatory laws against Muslims who represent about 20% of the population. The activity of Muslim slaughterhouses and butchers has been restricted, in the name of protecting cows, sacred animals in Hinduism. Interfaith marriages have become almost impossible. Above all, violent attacks against Muslims have multiplied. The Indian press also mentions extrajudicial executions. The BJP denies any responsibility for these abuses, but its regional leader is a highly controversial extremist figure. He is a 49-year-old Hindu monk and supremacist. Yogi Adityanath, that is his name, always has a shaved head, he is always dressed in a saffron robe, he is the object of real veneration among his followers. And his words are often violent towards Muslims.
This regional election also looks like a general rehearsal before the national elections scheduled for 2024, for two reasons. The first is that this monk, Yogi Adityanath is often presented as the probable successor of the current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is 72 years old. If Adityanath retains power in Uttar Pradesh, he will be in a position of strength to seek the succession in 2024. And then beyond questions of person, Uttar Pradesh is therefore the outpost of the religious radicalization of the BJP. Several Indian political scientists even see it as the prelude to a great transformation of India, from a historically secular country since its independence in 1947 into a Hindu, anti-Muslim religious regime. And there it could have chain consequences, well beyond Indian borders. Seen from here, this regional election in Uttar Pradesh may seem distant, but in fact there is a lot at stake.