As he revived the tradition of the press correspondents’ dinner on Saturday, President Biden multiplied his famous smiles of immaculate whiteness. Too happy to recall the importance of a free press, he showed himself to be a good player by accepting the spades of guest comedian Trevor Noah.
This good mood, however, hides many problems for a president who is likely to face a Congress whose two chambers will most likely be controlled by Republicans after the midterm elections.
In addition to its popularity rating, which is struggling to pass the 42% mark, a particularly high inflation rate overshadows a more than acceptable economic performance.
Unable to stand out, Joe Biden must now worry about the erosion of the support of two electoral clienteles won over to the Democrats. Several polls point in the same direction: young people and Latinos are drifting apart.
Disappointed young people
Generations Y and Z had placed their trust in Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election. The group of 18 to 29 year olds supported the Democrat to the tune of 61%, according to AP VoteCast. Yet three different polls (here, here, and here) show declines in popularity of 16%, 18%, and 21%.
One of these young people told the NPR site that candidate Biden was seen as a safety net, the man who would manage to ease the burden of student debt. After promising a lot, the president is slow to deliver the goods.
Of course, the risk is not that this clientele will turn to the Republican Party; disillusioned, she could simply choose not to vote. The president still has a little over two years to convince her to follow him.
If his political platform is favorable to these young people, the prospect of a strong Republican opposition hardly allows Biden to consider the realization of projects that would restore luster to his balance sheet.
Another recent poll also bears very bad news. In addition to the fact that he gives a clear advantage to Republicans for the midterm elections, we note that Latinos are unhappy with the work of Joe Biden. Unlike young voters, they will vote, but they plan to vote mostly for the Republicans (52% against 39%).
Among the factors that could explain this transition from one party to another, several observers note that Latinos no longer see themselves as immigrants, as a large community that votes as a bloc. Voting is more fragmented and the issues vary by region.
If it’s getting late for Biden and the Democrats for 2022, nothing says we can’t reverse the trends by 2024. No matter who the opponent is, mobilizing young people and better understanding the evolution of the Latino community are two key points. Failure to do so is dooming yourself to failure.