The United States and its allies had warned: the new phase of the war in Ukraine will be long. And it now poses a major diplomatic challenge to Joe Biden, who must maintain the unprecedented mobilization and unity of Westerners against Moscow.
“We must arm ourselves for a long fight”, had launched the American president during his visit to Poland at the end of March.
In Washington, there is no hiding a certain satisfaction with the progress of the first phase of the conflict since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. While US intelligence expected kyiv to fall rapidly, Ukrainian forces, increasingly armed by Americans and Europeans, resisted, forcing the invader to fall back east.
And the American government has been able to mobilize, beyond the European Union and NATO, a vast coalition to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia.
However, with the new battle that is beginning in eastern Ukraine, American strategists fear that this common effort will gradually crumble.
If the war is concentrated in the Donbass region, far from kyiv and NATO borders, the sense of urgency and unity of the West may diminish over time, recognizes a diplomat. “It’s a challenge,” he told AFP.
Another senior official fears that certain European countries, very affected by the inflation caused by the sanctions, are tempted in the long term to release the pressure.
“Climbing in Horror”
For the time being, this should not be the case. “The battle that is preparing promises to be fierce”, “between large armies, with tanks”, underlines the former American ambassador to kyiv William Taylor. “We are talking about battles like during the Second World War,” he told AFP.
“The Russians have demonstrated their willingness to kill civilians in large numbers […] so I think the sense of urgency and attention for Ukraine “will” even intensify, “said the now vice-president of the United States Institute of Peace think tank.
Marie Jourdain, French researcher at the Atlantic Council, another think tank from Washington, confirms that “the intensity of the fighting, but also the risk of escalation in horror in the coming weeks”, should continue to unite the anti-Kremlin front. But if the war drags on and turns into a “frozen conflict”, “a certain trivialization of images or horror stories risks limiting emotional reactions”.
We talk about battles like in the Second World War
According to her, “the major challenge” for Westerners will then be to “maintain unity and pressure vis-à-vis Russia in a context of growing disinterest” in public opinion, which could also grow weary of “economic repercussions”.
However, for the moment, the United States and several European countries would rather increase the pressure to try to make Vladimir Putin bend. Having already hit hard, Westerners don’t have many options.
“Pressure from Congress”
The Americans are placing a lot of hope in a seemingly unspectacular measure, which they believe will eventually bear fruit: the halt in the export to Moscow of technological components essential for its military industry. In the long run, the Russian army will find it difficult to renew its arsenal and its missiles, it is predicted in Washington.
But it is above all a European embargo on Russian oil, or even on Russian gas, like the one already decreed on the American side, which could change the situation, by depriving the Russian economy of a substantial windfall.
For now, the countries most dependent on Russian energy, such as Germany, are resisting. Behind the scenes, American officials say they are convinced that this measure, which was unimaginable a few weeks ago, will happen faster than we think.
Last pitfall for the American president: to continue to supply increasingly heavy weapons to Ukraine while avoiding the risk of direct confrontation with Russia.
And this, while the parliamentarians of Congress, on the right and on the left, push him to go further – one of his close allies, the Democratic senator Chris Coons, even considered that Washington should clearly consider the possibility of sending of American troops in Ukraine, a red line for Joe Biden. “If we say we will never do it, we will incite Putin to a new escalation in brutality,” warned the elected official.
“The pressure from Congress is productive, since the Biden government is doing things it was reluctant to do before,” said William Taylor.
In fact, the Pentagon is now sending heavy artillery and helicopters to kyiv, overcoming its initial caution. According to an American diplomat, the military setbacks of the Russian army have somewhat reassured the United States, which fears less than before seeing Vladimir Putin seek a direct conflict with the first world power.