One is determined to move forward even “alone”, the other wants to hold back: the rag is burning between Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden over Rafah.
Already quite tested since the start of the war, relations between the American president and the Israeli prime minister have crossed a new threshold of tension, the first having threatened this week to stop certain arms deliveries if the second was engaged in a major offensive in the crowded city in the south of the Gaza Strip.
By setting a red line for Israel for the first time after seven months of war, the American president, under pressure in the middle of an electoral year in the United States, is putting his words into action after months of procrastination in the face of the offensive. deadly Israeli attack in Gaza, launched in retaliation for the attack by Palestinian Hamas on October 7.
In doing so, the Democratic president is once again exposing a fault line with the Israeli government, which he previously described as the most right-wing in Israeli history.
The two leaders also fundamentally disagree on the post-war in Gaza, and the creation of a Palestinian state.
“If we have to stand alone, we will stand alone,” Mr. Netanyahu declared on Thursday, the day after American threats, with an Israeli army spokesperson saying that they had “enough weapons to accomplish [leur] mission to Rafah.
The White House, for its part, tried to tone it down, emphasizing that “the Israeli government has understood for a while” what this red line from Washington was.
For President Biden, “it’s pretty simple. It will continue to provide Israel with the capabilities it needs […] “but he does not want certain categories of American weapons to be used” in certain types of situations, said a spokesman, John Kirby.
He reiterated that for Washington, Israel has not yet launched this large-scale operation in the “population centers” in Rafah, which, according to Mr. Kirby, “would strengthen Hamas at the negotiating table.”
3 billion in aid
Privately, U.S. officials fear that despite repeated warnings, Israel will move ahead with Rafah, where the Israeli army has deployed tanks and taken control of the crucial border crossing humanitarian aid to a Palestinian population on the verge of famine.
And they concede that by using the weapons card, if Israel nevertheless decides to launch this major operation in Rafah, they risk losing an important means of pressure.
But the fact is, as Joe Biden acknowledged, that “civilians were killed in Gaza because of these” American bombs.
The suspension of arms deliveries “is clearly a sign of tension in relations and the growing pressure exerted on Mr. Biden by the left flank of the Democratic Party to limit the number of Palestinian casualties,” said Raphael Cohen, of the group of research RAND Corporation.
“That said, from a purely political perspective, Biden and Netanyahu need each other,” he added.
Mr Biden may fear alienating centrist voters if he goes too far, while Mr Netanyahu knows he needs US support at a time when the whole world is angry with Israel, according to the expert.
With 3 billion dollars annually, the United States is Israel’s main donor of funds and weapons.
While there is no question for Washington of calling into question long-term security aid, especially after Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel on April 14, calls are increasing to condition the American military aid.
A “disgrace” according to Trump
The Republican opposition is up against the Democratic president, who finds himself caught between two fires: not appearing to be complicit in the Israeli bombings which have already caused tens of thousands of Palestinian victims, while not giving the impression of giving up his long-time ally.
His opponent in the November presidential election, Donald Trump, did not have harsh enough words, accusing Joe Biden of “taking the side” of Hamas.
“What Biden is doing regarding Israel is a shame,” said the Republican candidate. “He totally abandoned Israel.”
The Republican “speaker” (president) of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, also denounced a decision which “risks emboldening the enemies of Israel”.