(Washington) This is the return match announced. But if Biden or Trump, for whatever reason, end up not being their party’s nominee for the US presidential election in November, a period of political confusion would begin.
For what ?
Why wouldn’t the 81-year-old Democratic president or his 77-year-old Republican predecessor be on the ballot on November 5?
Whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins in 2024, both would then be the oldest American president to take the oath of office.
Although neither man has reported serious illnesses, the risk of mortality or serious health accident increases over the years.
What about voluntary withdrawal? “It’s an incredibly ridiculous rant,” asserts Rachel Bitecofer, Democratic strategist.
Joe Biden regularly repeats that he is the best qualified candidate, despite polls which show that his age puts off voters.
“What are you supposed to say?” “Oh, he’s fine. Is he going to do a triathlon tomorrow?” Anyway. He’s 81 years old,” says Adam Smith, an influential Democratic elected official. “No one of note ran against him, so that’s where we are,” he continues.
As for Donald Trump, he faces decades in prison in several criminal cases. But the Republican is currently showing no desire to give way, despite the threat of possible conviction before the election.
How ?
If Joe Biden or Donald Trump exited the race before the end of the primaries, the last word would go to the delegates of the two conventions, or “8,567 people you have never heard of”, with very varied profiles, explains Elaine Kamarck, researcher at the Brookings Institute, in a recent note.
A roughly comparable scenario presented itself for the Democrats on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson publicly announced that he would not seek a second term, in the midst of the Vietnam War.
But since then, the conventions – that of the Republicans will take place from July 15 to 18, that of the Democrats from August 19 to 22 – have always been well-marked affairs, the result of which is known in advance, determined by the primaries which preceded in each state.
In the event of Joe Biden or Donald Trump withdrawing before the summer, it “would be the kind of convention where anything goes” for the party concerned, predicts Elaine Kamarck.
What if something bad happens to the nominated candidate between the convention and the election? It is then the “national committee” of each party which, in an extraordinary session, would nominate the candidate.
On the Republican side, the party is being reshuffled and Donald Trump has suggested placing his daughter-in-law Lara on his staff, which would give the Trump camp enormous weight in the choice of a possible replacement.
Who ?
This is the most open question.
No rule provides that the running mate automatically replaces the incumbent candidate. Joe Biden has already designated Vice-President Kamala Harris to campaign with him, but Donald Trump has not yet made his choice official.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African-American in this position, could face competition from the young guard, notably certain prominent governors: Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania).
On the Republican side, “the panel is smaller,” explains Hans Noel, professor of political science at Georgetown University, because the primary race, largely dominated by Donald Trump, has done damage.
He evokes the very virulent attacks of the former president against the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has already given up, or the former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, hated by many Trumpists, who is still hanging on.
“Nikki Haley might have been an alternative before, but now anyone who likes Trump won’t support her,” he said.
Finally, there remains one last scenario: the emergence of an independent candidate. But so far, no independent candidate, even a relatively popular one, has really posed a danger to the two-party system.
In 1992, the Texan businessman Ross Perot, an independent candidate, had, for example, received 19% of the popular vote but was unable to win any of the votes that really count: those of the 538 electors who, state by state, determine the outcome of the vote.