Is China’s position in the war between Kiev and Moscow shifting? This is asserted by the New York Times (paid item, in English) Sunday, March 13. According to the American daily, which cites anonymous officials, Russia has asked Beijing to provide it with military equipment and economic aid to help it overcome international sanctions. A charge swept away by the Asian giant. “In recent times, the United States has been constantly spreading fake news against China”replied to the press a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy.
Marc Julienne, head of China activities at the East Asia CenterFrench Institute of International Relations (Ifri), sheds light on Beijing’s role in this war.
franceinfo: Since the start of the war in Ukraine, what is the position of China, Russia’s historical ally?
Marc Julienne: Since February 24, China has maintained an official position of neutrality in the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. But when we analyze beyond the official discourse, we realize that this neutrality is only a facade. Beijing claims to respect the sovereignty of all States and the Charter of the United Nations, but it took up Vladimir Putin’s speech word for word when speaking “special military operation”, by refusing to use the term invasion and by refraining from attributing any responsibility for the conflict to one or other of the belligerents. She also recognizes the “legitimate security concerns” of Russia. It is a very general formula to say implicitly that Moscow also had reason to feel threatened in Ukraine.
“The Chinese discourse is very subtle, it’s all on the crest line. The goal is to present itself as neutral while preserving Russia’s interests. China calls for discussion, peace talks, but no time does not take steps to position itself as a mediator.”
Marc Julienneat franceinfo
Why does China implicitly support Russia in this war?
This is above all for political reasons. The two countries are fundamentally in agreement on one point: their visceral opposition to Western liberal democracies. It is an opposition to the United States, to NATO and, with regard to China in particular, an opposition to the new partnership of Aukus (Australia, United Kingdom, United States).
For its part, Russia is facing this Western front since it accuses NATO of wanting to expand to Ukraine, which is false. It is precisely on this point that China and Russia have allied interests and this is the reason why Beijing tacitly supports Moscow. It is an implicit support in the discourse and very explicit economically. China has provided financial aid to Russia since the beginning of the conflict. Through funding channels in yuan since the Russian economy has been excluded from the Swift system, but also by increasing imports of oil and gas, or even those of agricultural products, such as wheat.
Finally, since the beginning of the crisis, Beijing has been carefully observing what is happening in Ukraine, with Taiwan in mind. China has very explicit desires for a “unification”, according to its terms. It can learn some lessons from the current war.
Do you think China can get more involved in the conflict?
If it supported Russia too openly, it could itself be targeted by sanctions with strong repercussions on its economy. The ideological choice will then oppose the pragmatic interests of the Emiddle empire.
“To choose between anti-American alignment and the preservation of the Chinese economy, China will choose to preserve its economy, which is undergoing a slowdown phase after the health crisis linked to Covid-19.”
Marc Julienneat franceinfo
The country is in a very important year. In October 2022, the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place. President Xi Jinping should be reappointed for a third term, which would be unprecedented since the death of Mao Zedong (1976). We are therefore in a very sensitive period politically, where it is absolutely necessary to preserve the economy, for the sustainability of the president in power. Since China is trying to present itself as neutral, supplying military equipment to a belligerent would represent a complete about-face.