Beyond the diplomatic blunder

It is 2015. Newly elected, Justin Trudeau loudly proclaims that “Canada is back” on the international scene. Eight years later, we feel like putting a brown paper bag over our heads.

It’s not Justin Trudeau’s fault that the Speaker of the House of Commons, Anthony Rota, rolled out the red carpet for a Ukrainian veteran, without knowing that he had fought alongside the Nazis. But the ovation he received in Parliament transformed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit into a diplomatic disaster. And it provided unexpected ammunition to the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, which wants to pass off the invasion of Ukraine as a denazification operation.

A beautiful waste. Mr. Rota resigned, which was obvious. The fact remains that this incredible blunder harms the international reputation of Canada, whose influence continues to diminish.

As proof, Canada is not part of the new AUKUS alliance concluded by its usual allies, the Americans, the British and the Australians. We are talking here about a major collaboration both technologically and diplomatically.

But the worst rebuff remains Canada’s inability to obtain a seat on the UN Security Council in 2020. The Trudeau government lost the vote, like the Harper government ten years earlier.

“These two failures were therefore received as a humiliation for a State that is often considered to be one of the most enthusiastic promoters of the United Nations,” note the authors of the work. International politics and defense in Canada and Quebec. ⁽¹⁾

If Canada no longer shines as before on the international scene, it is because Justin Trudeau, who concentrates power in his cabinet, has not shown great leadership since coming to power.

For example, he has failed to live up to his promises on humanitarian aid.

And even though the planet is under high tension with the invasion of Ukraine, he never intended to reach the target set by his NATO partners of devoting 2% of GDP to military spending, while other countries such as Germany have made this commitment.

Note that money doesn’t solve everything. You still need to have a clear vision of what you want to do with it. However, the Trudeau government has not presented any key ideas or major projects in terms of foreign policy either.

Be back ? Yes OK. But what’s the point of being nostalgic for the glorious years of Canadian foreign policy that ended in the 1960s? We cannot remain anchored in the past while the tectonic plates of the planet are shifting.

It must be recognized that the decline of Canada’s influence can also be explained by structural factors which have roots much broader than the Trudeau administration.

If Canada has lost its relative importance on the world stage, it is because other players have gained ground, notably the emerging powers of the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This bloc now weighs more heavily in the world economy than the industrialized countries of the G7.

In short, it is the entire West that is losing its influence. It is the “liberal international order”, which formed the cornerstone of Canada’s foreign policy, which is being shaken up.

As Russia defies NATO by invading Ukraine, tension rises between China and the United States, our loyal ally. But will it always be the same, with the rise of Trumpism? Just look at how Donald Trump attacked the Free Trade Agreement.

In this changing context, Canada’s challenge is to renew the “internationalism” that has served it so well in the past while taking into account the new factors that will turn the planet over the coming decades.

This is what Paul Martin, then Minister of Finance, wanted to do by bringing the G20 into the world. This meeting of the 20 most important economies in their region made it possible to extend the G7 discussions to emerging economies. But we now see the limits of this forum which refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine during its last meeting in New Delhi.

What else to do?

To counterbalance China’s influence, Canada has developed its Indo-Pacific strategy, which focuses on increased relations with India, which is our 10^e important trading partner. This is a step in the right direction.

But Trudeau’s accusations that India was behind the assassination of a Sikh leader in British Columbia have cast a chill on relations between the two countries.

Seeing India’s intransigent reaction, we have the impression that it is using Canada to show what it is about to other countries… who have been careful not to raise their voices against India, that they court too.

Canada therefore finds itself isolated, stuck in a chess game in which it is only a pawn, in the same way as it was with China.

Nevertheless, we must stand up when a country commits an assassination on its territory, even if the political price can be high when we fight against a giant.