Will Ursula von der Leyen manage to keep her job? More than a month after the European elections, the 720 MEPs will decide on her future as President of the European Commission on Thursday, July 18. At the end of June, the leaders of the 27 gave the first green light to a second term of the outgoing president. But Ursula von der Leyen still needs to win an absolute majority of the votes on Thursday, or 361 votes. Uncertainty hangs over her re-election, between a weakened majority and risks of defections within her own ranks. All this against a backdrop of Far-right advances in the European Parliament, even if it advances divided.
If she obtains the 401 votes of the majority alliance formed by the European People’s Party (EPP) on the right, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the centrists of Renew, Ursula von der Leyen would be assured of a re-election without any problems. However, this EPP figure faces the risk of rejection from part of her camp. “I think it’s not going to be easy for her. There’s a 10% to 15% chance of defection from her group,” estimates Sophie Pornschlegel, director of studies at the think tank Europe Jacques Delors, to franceinfo. Starting with the French delegation within the EPP, led by François-Xavier Bellamy (LR).
“We will not support her in the upcoming election with Les Républicains, because we consider that the results are not up to what Europe expects today.”
François-Xavier Bellamy, member of the EPPto France Inter
The Slovenian delegation also said it would vote against the re-election of Ursula von der Leyen, reports PoliticoThe EPP is therefore far from forming a united bloc behind the German Christian Democrats: at a congress in March89 delegates (out of 489) opposed her nomination as candidate for the presidency of the European executive. “We see internal divisions, on the environment for example,” Sophie Pornschlegel analyses.
Members of the group have rejected the European nature restoration law, and German conservatives aim to repeal the European ban on the sale of new combustion engine vehicles by 2035. The European Green Deala marker of the first term of Ursula von der Leyen, the leader “is seen as too centrist” by some elected members of the EPP, the researcher continues. The illustration of a “rightward shift” politics, “especially centre-right parties” in response to the rise of the extreme right.
Beyond the EPP, does Ursula von der Leyen enjoy the trust of the Socialists and Democrats and Renew? The ban on combustion engines is a “key request” progressives, according to an S&D document consulted by the European media Euractiv. Within the party, Slovenian Matjaz Nemec has already announced in a statement that he would vote against the outgoing president of the Commission, because of her positions on the war in Gaza. In the ranks of Renew, the Portuguese MEP João Cotrim de Figueiredo announced on July 10 that she would not have his support either.
“We met her last week. We want to vote for her, if she commits to respecting the priorities put on the table,” Clara De Melo Ponce, spokesperson for the Renew group, points out to franceinfo. The centrists expect Ursula von der Leyen to make commitments on defense, the rule of law and competitiveness. They are also calling for continued implementation of the European Green Deal, as are the Socialists and Democrats.
“This is not a blank check, we are not giving our vote for free. It will really depend on the content.”
Clara De Melo Ponce, spokesperson for the Renew groupto franceinfo
According to the spokesperson, Ursula von der Leyen took into account “most of our priorities” during his meeting with the group. “We will see” if the candidate for re-election does the same in her speech on Thursday morning, she warns. This speech could be decisive for the outcome of the vote. If defections reach 15% in the majority alliance, Ursula von der Leyen will lack votes. Hence her efforts, in recent days, to obtain support on her left and right.
“I will reach out to other people,” promised the President of the European Commission at the end of June. A few days later, she met with figures from the environmental group in the European Parliament, made up of the Greens and the European Free Alliance (EFA), which has a total of 53 elected members. “The discussion was about the following question: ‘Can the Greens be part of a majority?'”, reported to Euractiv Bas Eickhout, Dutch co-chair of the group. “The only way to create a stable pro-European, pro-democracy and pro-Ukraine majority is to appeal to all four parties,” had already decided the same environmentalist leader with Politico the day after the elections in June. Discussions were still ongoing on July 10, a week before the vote on the reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen.
“She said to us, ‘I need you.’ How much does she need us?” asks Green MEP Marie Toussaint. “If the choice is between us and the extreme right, we will take our responsibilities,” she continues. The French elected official nevertheless lists three “big priorities”a prerequisite for any possible support: “No step backwards on the Green Deal or on the human rights agenda, particularly women’s rights”, “the fight against poverty as a social pillar”, and the assurance of a “non-participation of the extreme right”.
“She told us clearly that the majority she wanted did not include the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. Now she has to look for votes… We will see how the EPP behaves towards the ECR.”
Marie Toussaint, Green MEPto franceinfo
The European Conservatives and Reformists group, with 78 MEPs, includes, among others, elected representatives from Giorgia Meloni’s far-right party, Fratelli d’Italia. It also includes members of PiS, the Polish nationalist and conservative party. Could Ursula von der Leyen be tempted to reach out to them too? Former European Parliament President Antonio Tajani, whose Italian centre-right party Forza Italia is a member of the EPP, openly advocates this strategy. “We must open up to the conservatives led by Meloni if we want to ensure that von der Leyen is elected,” he said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Serra. A logical continuation of the rapprochements of recent months between the two parties, particularly on the environment.
The equation is complex. For the Greens, S&D and Renew, such an alliance would cross a red line. “This was a concern during our meeting, confirms Clara De Melo Ponce of Renew. We maintain that we do not want an agreement with the extreme right.” The CRE group itself is divided on the subject. Some have already announced that they will vote against, while others, like Italian elected official Carlo Fidanzaclaim “a decisive change on the European Green Deal, agriculture and immigration”writes the MEP on the social network X.
How can these opposing demands be reconciled? “The risk is that you potentially reduce political ambition. When you’re looking for broader support, that’s the risk of the lowest common denominator,” analysis by franceinfo Thierry Chopin, special advisor on institutions and democracy at the Jacques Delors Institute.
“The challenge for Ursula von der Leyen is to focus on issues that can obtain larger majorities: economic competitiveness, defense issues, external security.”
Thierry Chopin, European Union specialistto franceinfo
In seeking a large majority, Ursula von der Leyen could revise her vision of the European Green Deal. “The effort in favour of environmental policies could be approached more from an economic and strategic angle: competitiveness, the risks linked to dependence on fossil fuel imports, continues Thierry Chopin. This is a possible way for her to recreate political balances.” A strategy that pays off? The outcome of the vote will be known on Thursday afternoon.