They have already met five times on television sets. But the stakes of the sixth debate between Jordan Bardella and Gabriel Attal, Thursday May 23 from 8:15 p.m. on France 2, are singular. First, because the exchange takes place in the middle of the European campaign, a little over two weeks before the election, set for June 9 in France.
Above all, the two debaters have changed in stature since their last duel, in the spring of 2022. The president of the National Rally (RN) and head of the far-right party list was designated as prime minister by Marine Le Pen, when Gabriel Attal actually became Prime Minister at the start of the year. “It’s a very important fight, because it symbolizes the renewal of generations on both sides”assures political scientist Bruno Cautres.
Jordan Bardella has been calling for a debate with the head of government for several months. Initially reluctant, preferring to debate with Marine Le Pen, Gabriel Attal made known, at the end of April, his wish to organize a “democratic confrontation” with the leader of the RN.
Enough to raise some internal doubts. “I disagree with the fact that the Prime Minister is debating with Jordan Bardella, who is only the head of the list”judges a Renaissance deputy. “I understand that he accepted, but I wonder if this does not install [Jordan] Bardella in a position he doesn’t have yet”supports Horizon MP François Jolivet. “It is not wrong to say that he stoops to debate with [Jordan] Bardella, but the head of the RN list is a media phenomenon, credited with 32% and then [Gabriel] Attal was presented as the anti-Bardella weapon”nuance a member of the Renaissance campaign team.
Because there is danger in the Macronian residence. The presidential camp is trailed by around fifteen points by the RN in all the polls and is dangerously overtaken by the head of the socialist list, Raphaël Glucksmann, to the point that a crossing of the curves is now envisaged. “The polls are getting worse, there is no momentum,” sigh a source within the Renaissance countryside.
“Why not use our strengths with a very popular Prime Minister, a good debater and who wants to confront [Jordan] Bardella to slap him with the donut? It could be mobilizing for our camp.”
A source from the Renaissance campaign teamat franceinfo
This is the main issue of this debate for the majority: to remobilize Emmanuel Macron’s electorate which, for the moment, is cruelly lacking in Valérie Hayer, the head of the Renaissance list. At the risk of making the candidate a little more invisible, overshadowed by this highly publicized duel? “It’s a false debatewants to believe Antoine Armand, Renaissance deputy. Valérie is running a serious and solid campaign, she has a string of big wins.” Others, however, note that the top of the list “don’t take off” despite his media performances. “Valérie Hayer, it doesn’t work”says a source from the campaign team.
The televised duel with Jordan Bardella should also allow the head of government to establish his stature as a political leader, particularly in view of the presidential election of 2027. “The challenge is also to show his role as leader of the majority (…) while demonstrating that he manages to defeat the communication beast that is Jordan Bardella”notes Bruno Cautres.
He “must show that the RN has demonstrated no competence, no seriousness at the European level”, assures Antoine Armand. The Prime Minister’s team thus dissected Jordan Bardella’s positions to flush out “weaknesses” and point “untruths and lies, even on immigration”, of the president of the RN, relates an advisor to the executive.
The exercise remains double-edged for Gabriel Attal, who had little time to prepare due to the busy current events, particularly in New Caledonia. “The obvious danger is to have made this debate the major event of the campaign and that it does not lead to an improvement in Valérie Hayer’s list”, explains Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos institute. “This would significantly weaken the Prime Minister, further believes this specialist.
“Even if Gabriel Attal achieves a dazzling performance in this debate, if Valérie Hayer’s list is third, it will be a terrible failure for the majority. We cannot measure the consequences on the image of Gabriel Attal”, engages Bruno Cautres. “Whatever the result, we cannot be blamed for not having wet our shirts and not having campaigned”retorts an advisor to the executive.
The situation is quite different on the side of Jordan Bardella, crowned with good scores in opinion surveys. “We don’t let ourselves be destabilized by these figures, even if they make us happy”tempers RN deputy Edwige Diaz. We were all tested by the 2021 regional elections, with polls showing us winners in several regions.” On the evening of the second round, the far-right party had not won any.
Three years later, it is therefore with caution that Jordan Bardella steps forward to once again cross swords with the Prime Minister. On the menu of this new game are various subjects from the European campaign, such as the war in Ukraine, ecology or immigration. The far-right party also wants to take the opportunity to address more national issues. It will be “first of all the comparison of our project and their results, both at European and national level”, explains Renaud Labaye, RN executive. The two levels “are nested”he believes, because of the “choice of Emmanuel Macron” of ask his Prime Minister to get involved in the campaign Europeans.
For Jordan Bardella, “the idea is to continue to address two weaknesses of the RN”, analyzes Mathieu Gallard. The head of the list must therefore “to show that he is competent in substance, while the party’s record and its record in Strasbourg are criticized, and to show that he is not Europhobic, but Eurosceptic.” According to the pollster, “this would allow it to maintain its mobilized electoral base, while potentially being able to attract some Reconquest or Republican voters”two parties struggling more in the polls.
There is another major challenge for Jordan Bardella in this debate: to prove that he can, at 28 years old, hold his own against the man currently installed at Matignon. If his party managed to win in 2027, the tandem formed with Marine Le Pen would make him a successor to Gabriel Attal. “Today, it is for him to show that he deals as equals with the presidential party and with the Prime Minister”, underlines Bruno Cautres. To the point of carving out an RN candidate costume for 2027?
“We don’t know where Marine Le Pen will be in two years, but it seems very difficult for Jordan Bardella to take the leadership from her before 2027. On the other hand, if it is above 30%, it will have political significance gigantic.”
Bruno Cautres, political scientistat franceinfo
In any case, specialists put into perspective the possible effects of such a debate on opinion surveys. “Apart from the primaries, which are campaigns in which the candidates are ideologically close and where form is more important, these debates frankly play very little role”assures Mathieu Gallard. “There is no miracle debate, but it will be an important television moment between two radically different projects”, underlines an advisor to the executive. Be careful of leaving the road at this time of the campaign, particularly for Jordan Bardella. “When you are this high, you must neither disappoint nor make errors at the end of the journey. There is the risk of the cookie-cutter sentence, of the declaration that everyone will fixate on in the next days”concludes political scientist Bruno Cautres.