Beto’s (almost) impossible mission

Can Texas, kingdom of oil and weapons, elect a democratic governor?

Beto O’Rourke will try to achieve this (almost) impossible mission: the most famous Democrat in Texas wants to dislodge Republican Greg Abbott, one of the most unpopular governors in the country, in a year.

Texas hasn’t had a Democratic governor since 1994, when a young politician from a well-known family defeated Democratic Governor Ann Richards. (If this election tells you anything, it was George W. Bush’s first electoral victory.) Republicans have also won every Senate (Congress) election in Texas since 1988, and they have controlled the State Legislative Assembly since 2002.

“Nothing is impossible, but [une victoire de Beto O’Rourke] is not at hand. Republicans will want to campaign on public safety and immigration and associate Beto O’Rourke with the Biden administration. They’re going to try to portray him as a little weird guy, who wants to take your guns away from you. Beto O’Rourke, he will want to make a referendum on the management of Greg Abbott, say that the Republicans have been in power in Texas for 25 years and that they are the ones responsible for the problems of Texas ”, says James Henson, professor. in political science at the University of Texas at Austin and director of the Texas Politics Project.

Why he can win

1. Texas is changing

As conservative as it is, Texas is changing slowly but surely due to immigration and the greater political clout of urban areas, which traditionally vote Democrats. Whites make up 40% of the population, Hispanics 39%, and African Americans 12%.

In 2020, Joe Biden did not win this state of 29 million people, but he obtained the best result of a Democratic presidential candidate (46.5% of the vote, against 52.1% for Donald Trump. ) since Jimmy Carter’s victory in 1976.

2. His opponent is politically vulnerable

If he leaves widely favorite in this electoral duel, Greg Abbott is one of the least popular governors in the country. Its approval rate fell from 61% to 32% during the pandemic, according to the COVID-19 States Project.

His work has been heavily criticized for two years.

First, there is his handling of the pandemic. Texas was one of the US states with the least stringent sanitation measures.

Another issue that Beto O’Rourke would do well to bring to the fore: the management of the state’s electricity system. Last winter, millions of homes were affected by power outages because the electricity grid was not equipped to withstand snowstorms.

3. A rock star who will have to show discipline

Robert Francis O’Rourke – he uses the Spanish diminutive of his first name, Beto – is an atypical Texan. As a teenager, he was a computer hacker. In his twenties, he was playing bass in a punk band and was arrested twice (breaking into college and driving while impaired). Now in his late forties, he’s still skateboarding.

If he wants to become governor, he will have to lead a very disciplined campaign. During his presidential campaign, he wanted to force the withdrawal of assault weapons – an unpopular proposal in Texas, which he did not say a word about this week. However, he opposes a bill that would allow Texans to have guns without a license.

He has also already started to distance himself from the unpopular President Joe Biden. “It’s obvious President Biden could do a better job at the border,” Beto O’Rourke told CBS.

He also wants to legalize possession of small amounts of marijuana and expand access to health care through Medicaid (an option created by “Obamacare” in effect in many states, but not in Texas).

Why he can lose

1. Texas is very conservative

Texas is still a very conservative state where the Democratic Party has had little footing for three decades. In addition to Democratic voters, Beto O’Rourke will have to convince the 8% to 12% of independent voters.

2.55 million reasons

Money matters in Texas elections, and Greg Abbott is a formidable fundraiser: he has already raised $ 55 million. But Beto O’Rourke also excels when it comes to fundraising. In 24 hours, he raised $ 2 million, more than the Democratic opponent of Greg Abbott in 2018 during his entire campaign. For his campaign in the Senate in 2018, Beto O’Rourke had raised 80 million.

3. Unfair electoral tactics

The Republicans ‘Response to Texas’ New Demographics? Tighten election laws to make it more difficult to access the right to vote, especially for immigrant communities and African Americans. And redraw the electoral map so as to benefit Republicans and reduce the political weight of Hispanic, African-American and immigrant voters. Beto O’Rourke will not be disadvantaged by the new electoral map: the election of the governor is decided at the level of the state, and not by electoral districts.