Best form, flawless end of season, impact of sprint races… How Lando Norris can dethrone Max Verstappen

Lando Norris moved a little closer to leader Max Verstappen by claiming his third win of the season on Sunday in Singapore. He has six race weekends left to make a fantastic comeback towards a first career title.

After two seasons of unchallenged domination by Red Bull and Max Verstappen, will Formula 1 fans enjoy a hard-fought end to the season? With just over two months to go, nothing is yet decided in the race for the drivers’ world championship title, and Lando Norris is establishing himself as a real challenger to the announced favourite.

Winner for the third time this season in Singapore on Sunday, the McLaren driver is starting to make up the deficit thanks to recent good form, both personally and in his car. Still nicknamed “Lando No-win” at the start of the season, the Briton unlocked his counter in the premier class by winning his first Grand Prix in Miami at the beginning of May. Since then, he has systematically finished in the top 5 of each Grand Prix contested, with the exception of his last place in Austria.

His good form has been particularly striking since the return from the summer break. Launched by his second victory in the Netherlands, on his rival’s home turf, he has always scored more points than the Dutchman at each race weekend, and is gradually reducing his deficit from -70 to -52.

On the other hand, Max Verstappen has been stalling recently. He hasn’t won since the Spanish Grand Prix on June 23, eight races ago. This is his longest run without a win since the 2020 season (11). Over this period of time, the Red Bull driver has also struggled to reach the podium, where he has only finished three times (compared to 5 for Norris).

In Singapore, the Bristol native’s overwhelming performance (victory by 21 seconds) allowed him to make another comeback and continue to believe in his title dreams. After the Singapore meeting, 52 points separate the two men in the standings, with six more race weekends on the calendar.

To close this gap for sure, Lando Norris must take an average of nine points per race weekend from the triple world champion. To reach this total, the Briton, when he wins (and scores 25 points), must relegate Verstappen beyond second place (which is worth 18 points). In the event of a second place for the McLaren driver, the Dutchman must not be higher than sixth, third place, seventh… Or else it will be necessary to count on a failure of the Red Bull n°1 while the McLaren driver collects big points. The scenarios and combinations are numerous.

But we must also take into account the three sprint races (Austin, Brazil and Qatar) which will also distribute points. Nine points to regain, which is almost the total awarded by a success in the sprint format (8). Norris can therefore also look for good shots in these short races, all won by Verstappen so far this season.

The most important thing to remember is that Lando Norris will not be able to “settle” for simply winning and getting ahead of his rival, like this weekend in Singapore. He will have to put at least one or more cars between them at some point to continue to believe in it. Because s‘he won all the remaining Grands Prix with the point for the fastest lap, as well as the sprint races, but Max Verstappen finished in second place each time, the latter will be crowned world champion for a fourth time in a row.