“We are not on something insignificant”, assures Antoine Bondaz, who puts into perspective the maneuvers of Beijing, which simulated for three days a “closure” of the island.
Beijing presented these maneuvers as an exercise “total encirclement”. China put an end, Monday, April 10, to the operation carried out around Taiwan, organized in retaliation for the meeting between the Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, and the speaker of the American House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, near Los Angeles, March 29.
At the end of this third and last day of demonstration, the Chinese military command affirms to have “extensively tested its fighting ability” joint “in real conditions”. Authorities in Taiwan, a territory with a population of 23 million, said they detected 12 warships and 91 Chinese planes around the island on Monday. In previous days, supported by one of China’s two aircraft carriers, these military aircraft had simulated targeted bombardments against the island.
“We are not on something insignificant”ensures Antoine Bondaz, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research. The China specialist puts into perspective for franceinfo this operation called “Joint Sword” (“United Sword”) by Beijing.
China had already carried out, in August 2022, maneuvers of an unprecedented scale around Taiwan during the visit of Nancy Pelosi. How do you judge this new operation?
Antoine Bondaz : The duration is less important, the deployed assets [c’est-à-dire les navires ou encore les bateaux] are less numerous. In terms of volume and intensity, we are on something less than in August 2022. However, a small difference can be highlighted: on Monday, 54 Chinese planes crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait. It is unprecedented. There have never been so many in one day.
Should it therefore be considered important?
Of course. It remains serious because it is always the same type of exercise: simulating a blockade of the island. We are not on something trivial, it is not simply a demonstration of Chinese capabilities. We are talking about a demonstration of China’s operational capabilities on a specific scenario: carrying out a blockade. It’s important to show that you have abilities, but it’s even more important to show that you know how to use them.
What message does China want to send?
Alongside the military effort, there is an informational effort, fundamental, which aims to intimidate the Taiwanese population. But she doesn’t care, she’s used to it. The goal is also to impress Taiwan’s partners, sending a message that there is no point in helping Taiwan. This concerns especially the United States but also Japan.
You still have to realize the situation: you have Chinese state media – we are not talking about a person on his blog or on social networks – which broadcast computer-generated images simulating exercises around and on the island of Taiwan. If Russia had simulated, before the war in Ukraine, in a short video, strikes on Ukraine, it would have caused a scandal. There, we say that “It’s a simulation, it doesn’t mean anything”. Whereas if: they are state media, it is an official message.
And what is the message to the Chinese?
It is to say that China is powerful. It flatters Chinese nationalism. What’s crazy enough is to do it while staging a war. Generally, to show off one’s abilities, one shows one’s ships, etc. There, it is the staging of strikes on another country. We don’t have to get used to that, on the European side.
Emmanuel Macron does not want to “be a follower” of the United States and China, believing that “the accumulation of tensions” could lead “to accident”. Is this risk high?
Obviously there is a risk of an incident, it should not be underestimated. Threats should be taken seriously and China threatens Taiwan every day. It should also be remembered that China wants to change the status quo and the status of Taiwan. [gouverné de fait par un pouvoir qui lui est propre, mais considéré par la Chine comme une province à réintégrer].
The debate is not: “Should we follow the Americans? Are we waging war on China?” The question is how we contribute to maintaining the status quo and above all not getting used to what is happening. We must not be satisfied with this gradual change in the status quo to the benefit of China.