behind the scenes of the relative majority for the preparation of the 2023 draft budget

The deputies start Monday in the hemicycle the tumultuous examination of the draft budget 2023, a text that the government is already preparing to pass without a vote, for lack of an absolute majority for the macronists. More than 3,000 amendments have been tabled on this first part of the finance bill (PLF), which notably includes a “tariff shield” of 45 billion euros in the face of the explosion in energy prices. A budgetary marathon which will therefore continue until December.

>> Budget: the use of 49.3, “It will be before the weekend”, predicts a presidential majority executive

But what happens before the great theatrical flights in plenary? A text of law is first the subject of discussions and more and more negotiations in the new context of relative majority. And during his last mandates, the centrist Bertrand Pancher had never known that: to be in the opposition and to have the impression of finally being listened to to move the lines. “It escapes no one that there is no longer an absolute majorityunderlines the centrist. The negotiation is now regular because it is necessary to have a majority. I am president of my group Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires. I lead the vote of twenty parliamentarians and not a day goes by that I do not have a meeting with a minister or a contact with the Prime Minister”.

The Most Courted Republicans

The most courted, however, remain the Republican deputies. Numbering 62, if they join the 250 deputies of the Macronist coalition, that is enough to reach a majority and pass a law. “As we are the only ones to say that we are here to change things, not to block them, the government inevitably turns to us a lot”, recognizes Antoine Vermorel. The LR deputy for the 5th district of the Loire knows that his group is in a position to negotiate. Recently invited to a breakfast at the Ministry of Ecological Transition, the young MP and his colleagues took the opportunity to lay down red lines on the next renewable energy text.

“We have a sensitive subject, it’s onshore wind powerhe slips. We consider that on this energy, there must be an agreement of the local populations. This is what I said to the Minister: either this provision is in the text and we have a benevolent view, or it is not there and in this case, we will not vote for the text. “

This kind of negotiation can still be played out when the bill arrives in plenary session. It happens then just at the exit of the hemicycle, in the large rooms decorated with gilding, explains Antoine Vermorel. “I remember, for example, on the purchasing power text, there were a few suspensions of sessions. Often these are times when, politically, the subject is very sensitive. We met with the minister in the living rooms to to be able to negotiate and then decide on our vote and position ourselves with complete clarity.” Most of the time, the ordinary citizen is not aware of the content of this negotiation.

The discussions and the search for a compromise so vaunted by Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne seem to work well with the right, but much less with the left, according to the statements of the deputies of Nupes. “For the moment, we have unfortunately experienced it too littledeplores the ecologist Aurélien Taché. On the side of the ranks of the left of the hemicycle, I have the feeling that the Republican deputies managed to get a lot of things done. It is less clear on our side for the moment, but I do not despair that on important texts like those which will arrive on renewable energies, we will be more heard. Anyway, I want it.”

The socialist Jérome Guedj also regrets that no proposal from the left finds favor in the eyes of the majority.

“At some point, it’s going to show that this is political marketing and not really a work of compromise.”

Jérome Guedj, socialist deputy

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If it is appropriate that “the period is more interesting than a few years ago”the deputy of the 6th district of Essonne judges that“It still remains very padlocked by this game of the Fifth Republic which gives all the powers to the executive. I will take an example: you manage to have an amendment voted against the government’s opinion. The government has the right to ask what we call a ‘second reading’. It’s as if you had conceded a football goal and you said: ‘Well, we’re going to withdraw the penalty’. And we’re going to put in three goalkeepers to make sure that this this time, the ball does not go in.” Legal tools which, according to him, curb democracy.

And it’s a bit the same state of mind at the National Rally, which goes to all the appointments in ministry but without having too many illusions. The government rarely looks to him for deals.

For the text of the day, the finance bill, the Ministers of Economy and Budget have consulted a lot for a month, meetings called “The meetings of Bercy”. These meetings resulted in a slightly modified text, in particular last week during the work in the Finance Committee. “We voted for a device to protect local authorities, amendments which are sometimes tabled by the opposition. There are several of Les Républicains which have been adopted, relates Thomas Cazenave, of the Renaissance group. VSIt proves that agreements can be found on certain subjects. Afterwards, there are subjects on which there will never be agreements. We will continue this work within the hemicycle and it will also depend a lot on the opposition.

The relative majority therefore returns the ball to the other groups: if the government is led to use article 49.3 to force its way through, it will be the last resort in the face of a blockage which is very likely to happen because Les Républicains have repeated that they would not vote for this highly symbolic text. It would be giving a blank check to the government, with the risk of being considered an integral part of Macronie.