For several weeks, government teams have been lost in conjecture to know when Emmanuel Macron will decide to reshuffle. But, despite the July 14 deadline and the “100 days of calm”, the change is probably not for now.
There is a recipe for redesign. The change of a government team would be like a cake made up of several layers, “black forest genre”. The first layer, described a ministerial adviser, “it’s the tingling” Or “everyone is busy, journalists and cabinets alike”. Then comes that of “cast” Or “we make our predictions” with ministers given on departure. To finish, “the last layer” : “paralysis”When “everyone is waiting for the presidential anointing”.
Everyone has been scrutinizing every day for a possible sign from the Elysée for several weeks now. But still nothing. At the time of the national holiday and the assessment of “100 days of appeasement and action” decreed on April 17, after the crisis on the pension reform, Emmanuel Macron does not seem to be in a hurry to reshuffle. He will not be speaking on Friday July 14, but “in the next few days”, said the Elysée. The head of state still wanted to reassure those who feel the ax coming on Thursday. “I know what it is, I was in your place. Above all, do not read the newspapers”he launched during the Council of Ministers, according to the comments reported by a member of the government to France Télévisions.
Both therefore cling to the rumors that circulate at full speed. The riots, which shook France for several days after the death of young Nahel in Nanterre, did indeed freeze the situation for some time. But as soon as the urban violence fell, speculation started again. Like on July 7, when a ministerial adviser tapped on Telegram messaging: “‘Reshuffle Monday’. Two words on a loop at the coffee machine”. It doesn’t take more for “everyone gets excited”, says a regular interlocutor of the President of the Republic. But rearranging before July 14 is not without risk, thinks another adviser: in the event of a resumption of the riots, “this announcement which must be positive would have been damaged”.
“During the works, the sale continues”
If the ministers are in the dark and the cabinets sometimes in suspense, it is nevertheless necessary to show a government “at work”. When questioned, several members of Elisabeth Borne’s team thus put forward their current files. “I must say that between Vivatech [le rendez-vous annuel de l’innovation technologique], The law project [visant à “sécuriser et réguler l’espace numérique”] passed unanimously in the Senate and managing social media during the riots, I’ve been pretty busy”details the Minister Delegate for the Digital Transition, Jean-Noël Barrot, who claims not to have “didn’t really have time to think” to the redesign.
“As far as I am concerned, I answer you from Toulouse where we are inaugurating a new production line with Bruno Le Maire and Clément Beaune [ministres de l’Economie et ministre délégué aux Transports]. During the works, the sale continues”replies, in a ready-made metaphor, the Minister of Industry, Roland Lescure. “I have had a very busy schedule of very concrete projects in recent weeks, not to mention the riots”abounds another member of the government.
The Prime Minister, too, occupies the ground. The Parisian published on July 8 a long interview with Elisabeth Borne in which she evokes pell-mell her balance sheet, the “100 days”, the ecological transition, but also the reorganization. “I have a roadmap, I deliver and I stick to it”assures the head of government, adding: “I don’t comment on rumours.” In front of the parliamentarians of the majority gathered at Matignon on Tuesday eveningshe was also pleased that the “dynamic” of his government either “fully launched.”
Weakened by the sequence of retirements, Elisabeth Borne nevertheless seemed in the hot seat for a long time, before finding a high rating within the majority, where some point to the absence of an obvious plan B. “No matter how much I look in every corner, I don’t see the five-legged sheep”, recently confided a macronie executive. This does not mean that Elisabeth Borne is “saved”. “This interview with Borne in The Parisianit’s a classic: you show signs to say that you are not threatened”deciphers an adviser.
“We cannot work in these conditions”
The day after this interview, another press article caused a stir among the majority. Release published a long investigation on Gérald Darmanin, entitled “Behind the scenes of his Matignon operation”. The Minister of the Interior, on the front page of the daily, is often cited among the potential replacements for Elisabeth Borne. “There is a showdown between the two”believes a ministerial adviser. “The paper on Darmanin in ‘Libé’, it sets an atmosphere… We can’t work in these conditions”gets annoyed another.
Beyond the case of Elisabeth Borne, it is indeed the entire government apparatus that seems frozen, despite the watchwords of a government team at work. “Nothing is happening anymore, everyone is waiting and freaking out”, relates a framework of the majority. Many parliamentarians have already been criticizing for months “weak government”in the words of an elected Macronist. “We can’t leave with the same team for months like this, at the risk of dying slowly.”
“It’s not necessarily super pleasant, but it helps to close ranks”nevertheless tries to relativize a minister, who speaks of the reshuffle as “of a floating question”, that “we put a little aside”, but who “remain whole”. A question that arises with even more insistence for the most weakened ministers, such as Pap Nidaye, criticized from all sides at National Education, or Marlène Schiappa, involved in the scandal of the Marianne fund.
“It’s very Macronian to take your time”
Still, the window of opportunity for a reshuffle before the summer break seems increasingly narrow. Between the NATO summit, which was held in Vilnius (Lithuania) on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the July 14 celebrations, with the Indian Prime Minister as guest of honor, Emmanuel Macron’s agenda is already well loaded. All eyes are on the week ahead. “Will it move on the 17th [juillet] SO ?”, despairs a ministerial adviser. But no one really believes it anymore. “I find it bizarre to put off a huge political impetus before the holidays”blows a close friend of the president.
“The French are like me: they want to watch the Tour de France quietly without being told about politics.”
A relative of the President of the Republicat franceinfo
“From the 17th, the majority of French people are on vacation. By the beach, you don’t care about the reshuffle”, abounds a ministerial adviser. So much so that some believe that the change of government team could be put off for the start of the school year, or even after the senatorial elections of September 24. “It’s very Macronian to take your time…”smiles this same source. “Basically, the president does not necessarily want to take care of that”another sighs.