Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Real Sociedad… Which opponent for PSG in the round of 16?

The C1 draw, Monday at noon, will reveal the identity of the capital club’s next opponent.

For the 12th consecutive year, Paris Saint-Germain will be featured in the knockout phase of the Champions League. Qualified at the last minute last Wednesday, Luis Enrique’s players will know the name of their future opponent in the round of 16 on Monday, December 18, at noon. Seven clubs can stand in their way and the draw will only keep one, to choose between Arsenal, Atlético de Madrid, Barça, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad .

The most likely draw: Bayern Munich

As usual, the draw will award a second in the group to the first in another group. The print run is almost complete. In addition to the ban on creating a poster that has already been played during the group stage (a PSG-Dortmund for example), two teams from the same country will not face each other. RB Leipzig will not be able to cross paths with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. A piece of data that slightly upsets the probabilities.

Thus, PSG has a 17.3% chance of falling against Bayern Munich. The Bavarian club is its most likely opponent in the round of 16 ahead of Manchester City (14.75%). The other five teams are credited with the same probability rate of 13.59%. The differences between the different scenarios are smaller this year given the low number of impossible encounters.

As a reminder, the capital club had already faced Bayern Munich last season at the same stage of the competition, with two defeats (1-0 then 2-0) and a logical elimination. Since 2017, the two clubs have had no fewer than seven confrontations, including one in the final in 2020 (5 wins to 2 for the Bavarian team).

The most lenient draw: Real Sociedad

Among PSG’s seven potential opponents, six are big names on the European scene. Four have won the competition (Real, Barça, Bayern and City) and two have already reached the final (Atlético and Arsenal). The presence in this famous list of Sociedad is a little surprise. The Basque club had not reached the knockout stages of the Champions League for 20 years and this is only their third participation in the 21st century.

Currently sixth in La Liga, Antoine Griezmann’s former club (from 2009 to 2014) is the one that inspires the least fear on paper. But, they came out of the group stage undefeated (3 wins, 3 draws), ahead of Inter Milan, the outgoing finalist. Led by experienced players like Mikel Oyarzabal or Robin Le Normand and the talented Takefusa Kubo, Imanol Alguacil’s training is not to be taken lightly.

The toughest draw: Manchester City

Any opponent other than Real Sociedad will seem like a mountain for PSG, but if we have to isolate just one, Manchester City is undoubtedly the most formidable. Title holders, the Cityzens have just completed their group stage with six victories in six matches for the first time in their history in C1. Pep Guardiola also took the liberty of doing an almost complete review of his squad on the last day.

Even if the Mancunian team has been performing less well lately, with a tendency to concede a lot of goals and the loss of leadership in the Premier League, it has never succeeded at PSG in the Champions League. In two confrontations in the knockout phase, Paris has always experienced elimination (in the quarters in 2016 and in the semi-finals in 2021). In total, in six matches, the capital club has only won once (at home in the group stage in September 2021) for four defeats and a draw.