The Legault government’s battery sector projects, more particularly that of Northvolt, caused a wave of panic behind the scenes, to the point where Hydro-Québec spoke of the death warrant of already authorized industrial projects and the construction of a new one. gas power plant, reveal confidential documents obtained by The newspaper.
Last year, Quebec gave the green light to five priority projects in the battery sector. These will consume 664 megawatts (MW) of electrical power, including 360 MW only for Northvolt (see table).
However, Hydro was already planning to run out of electricity for the 37 industrial projects which were “committed” from December 2022 and which will require more than 1,700 MW.
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In a June 2023 presentation that the state-owned company made to the Minister of Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, it was recalled that Bill 2, adopted in February 2023, “forces Hydro-Québec to honor” these projects.
“Without structuring action, Hydro-Québec plans to not be able to meet the commitments linked to the 37 projects undertaken, nor to any other project,” we warned.
Questioned by THE NewspaperHydro has assured that the 2035 action plan of its new CEO, Michael Sabia, will make it possible to generate the thousands of megawatts necessary for all these projects (see other text).
CEO Michael Sabia during the press meeting about Hydro-Québec’s 2035 Action Plan – Towards a carbon-free and prosperous Quebec. Montreal, November 1, 2023.
Photo Pierre-Paul Poulin
Red flags
Three months after the announcement of the arrival of Northvolt, the situation was critical for the 19 projects which had not signed a firm agreement with Hydro (see table).
In his presentation, Hydro-Québec did not beat around the bush to tell the minister that it no longer had any room for maneuver:
- “Negotiations will be required to optimize these projects and mitigate the risk of exceeding capacity,” we wrote.
- “The megawatts committed exceed the available capacity, strategies acting on demand are required to mitigate the risk,” we added..
“Irresponsible”
“The current government only sees economic development by attracting energy-intensive industries, which makes no sense,” laments Normand Mousseau, professor at the University of Montreal and scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute. .
“We say to all current companies that want to decarbonize in Quebec: “too bad, die”,” he says.
Normand Mousseau Full professor, physics, University of Montreal Scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute https://iet.polymtl.ca Member of the executive committee of the Energy Modeling Hub https://cme-emh .ca Research Director https://www.accelerateurdetransition.ca Photo provided by Normand Mousseau
“It demonstrates the completely irresponsible and inconsistent nature of the productivist headlong rush that is being staged by this government,” denounces Jean-François Blain, independent analyst in the energy sector.
Thermal power plants and imports
To cope with strong industrial demand, Hydro-Québec presented to the government a “scenario” to increase its capacity by 800 MW by 2032 in addition to the production additions that were already planned.
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The scenario included, for peak periods, the use of the Bécancour natural gas power plant (400 MW) and a “new thermal power plant”.
“In the event that full potential is not reached or an unfavorable climatic event (low hydraulicity), thermal power plants would be required in support (Bécancour power plant at the base and new power plant at the peak)”, underlines the presentation .
“We go back 20 years, when we had the debate on thermal power stations,” protests Patrick Bonin of Greenpeace.
3D rendering of the Northvolt Six Quebec factory
Photo provided by Northvolt
“Significant uncertainty»
The capacity improvement scenario presented in June 2023 also included an increase in energy efficiency targets, “increased dependence on external markets in the event of low hydraulicity”, tight management of reserves and the use of battery storage.
Hydro-Québec warned Minister Fitzgibbon that “significant uncertainty remains regarding most of the variables in this scenario,” thus emphasizing the anticipated precariousness of the balance between demand and supply of electricity in Quebec.
Asked by The newspaper on a return to thermal power, Hydro-Québec declared: “There is no question of building a new power station.”
Battery sector, data centers, greenhouses, decarbonization…
Hydro-Québec has received more than 30,000 megawatts of industrial projects, the equivalent of 10.5 million residences. Projects consuming 21,500 MW, mainly in the hydrogen sector, have already been refused.
Here are the projects that were the most advanced last year.
4 key dates
October 2022: Pierre Fitzgibbon gets Energy
The day after the elections, Prime Minister François Legault entrusted Energy to his long-time friend, Pierre Fitzgibbon, who is already responsible for the Economy and Innovation portfolios.
January 2023: Sophie Brochu announces her resignation
The CEO of Hydro-Québec, Sophie Brochu, created a surprise by announcing her departure in April when there were still two years left in her mandate. The previous fall, she feared that Hydro would become an electricity “Dollarama.”
Sophie Brochu led Hydro-Québec from May 2020 to April 2023.
Photo QMI Agency, Thierry Laforce
May 2023: Michael Sabia appointed head of Hydro
The government announces the appointment of Michael Sabia, former CEO of the Caisse de dépôt, to head Hydro-Québec. He will officially take office on 1er august.
September 2023: Announcement of the arrival of Northvolt
Justin Trudeau and François Legault announce the arrival of the Swedish company Northvolt, which will come to manufacture in Quebec, they promise, “the greenest batteries in the world”.
Hydro swears it can cope with demand
Hydro assures that it can find all the required megawatts
The battery sector will not compromise industrial projects already underway, responded tit for tat Hydro-Québec when The newspaper asked her about an alarmist presentation she made to the minister in June 2023.
“We have had a new CEO since August 2023 and published an action plan in November. The above documents or information […] are no longer relevant,” insisted Maxence Huard-Lefebvre, Hydro spokesperson.
Commitments respected
The state-owned company has assured that it is capable of meeting the electricity supply commitments it has made with regard to the 37 industrial projects that were committed as of December 2022.
The capacity addition scenario presented to the government in 2023, of the order of 800 MW or 6.4 TWh by 2032, is no longer in the cards, said Mr. Huard-Lefebvre.
He noted that Hydro-Québec’s 2035 action plan, tabled in November by CEO Michael Sabia, expects the addition of 60 TWh of energy, or between 8,000 and 9,000 MW of additional power. by 2035.
To achieve this objective, which is much more ambitious than that of the strategic plan presented in 2022, Hydro plans to significantly increase the number of wind farms, work hard to renovate hydraulic power plants, increase imports, use renewable natural gas and use battery storage.
Investments of at least $155 billion are planned by 2035, including only $90 billion for electricity production.