Bangladesh | End of regime for Bangladesh’s “iron lady”

Uncertainty reigns in Bangladesh following the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after more than a month of bloody protests

It’s game over for Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh’s prime minister finally resigned on Monday after more than 15 years of uninterrupted rule. Her sudden departure comes after a month of protests, which were brutally repressed by police, resulting in the deaths of 200 to 300 people.

According to local media Prothom AloM^me Hasina reportedly fled the country with her sister in a military helicopter to reach “safety” (she reportedly landed in India), while thousands of people celebrated in the streets of the capital Dhaka the end of an increasingly contested regime, some even storming the prime minister’s residence, taking “many belongings” with them.

In a televised address, Bangladesh’s military chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, announced that an interim government would be formed to lead the country and promised an investigation into the deadly crackdowns of recent weeks, hoping to calm the situation in a still volatile environment.

“Keep faith in the army, we will investigate all the killings and punish those responsible,” he said. “I have ordered that no army or police should engage in any kind of shooting…”

A month of demonstrations

The protests in Bangladesh began peacefully in early July, as students demanded an end to the quota system for government jobs, which gave priority to the children of fighters for independence in 1971.

But the rallies turned into an unprecedented popular uprising against M^me Hasina and her Awami League party. The government has tried to suppress the violence with force, further fueling outrage.

At least 95 people, including 14 police officers, were reported dead in clashes in Dhaka on Sunday, according to AFP. More than 10,000 people have been arrested in recent weeks as violence has led to the closure of schools and universities across the country, while authorities have imposed a curfew during which violators risk being shot on sight.

But pressure from the streets eventually got the better of Sheikh Hasina, often described as Bangladesh’s “Iron Lady.”

And now what?

Although his departure has calmed things down, uncertainty now reigns in the country, particularly arousing concerns from the UN, which called on Monday for a return to calm.

The question now is whether the chaos will continue on the streets of Dhaka, where there are fears of a festival of score-settling, including by imprisoned opposition leaders or Islamist groups silenced by the M regime.^me Hasina.

“Retaliation is to be expected against the Awami League,” sums up Subho Basu, professor at McGill University and author of the book, simply Intimation of Revolution: Global Sixties and the Making of Bangladesh.

The other question is whether the country will be able to rebuild a credible democratic system.

Subho Basu said it was “unlikely” that the military would want to “take direct control” of power, even though Bangladesh has a history of military juntas (29 coups since 1971).

More likely, he adds, is that the military will support the incoming interim government while ensuring new elections, which will eventually bring back to power the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the country’s other historic party, which is seen as less secular and closer to Islamist parties, including the influential Jamaat-e-Islami, which will likely have a role to play.

But according to Narendra Subramanian, a professor of political science at McGill, the transition is still far from assured. “It’s one thing to bring down a government,” he says. “But that doesn’t guarantee that the next government will be more democratic.”

Bangladesh’s longest reign

The eldest daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh which gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, Sheikh Hasina had been in power since 2009, after a first term between 1996 and 2001.

At 76, she is the longest-serving leader in the history of Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation of more than 160 million people located between India and Burma.

Sheikh Hasina was elected in January for a fourth consecutive term in a controversial election that was boycotted by her main opponents, as was the 2014 election. Thousands of opposition members were imprisoned in the run-up to the election, raising questions about the free and fair nature of the vote and about her regime in general, which is seen as increasingly authoritarian. Last November, the NGO Human Rights Watch even claimed to have evidence of “enforced disappearances, torture and extrajudicial executions”.

Under his leadership, the South Asian country, once one of the world’s poorest, has nevertheless enjoyed a significant economic boom, thanks in part to the development of its textile industry. But indicators were once again on the decline, exacerbating tensions in a society increasingly frustrated by growing repression.

“The downhill economy coincided with the absence of democratic options,” concludes Subho Basu. “The student movement only triggered the general discontent against the regime. The steam was starting to build up, and the pressure cooker finally exploded…”

With Agence France-Presse