December has been tumultuous for the airline industry, with a Swiss emergency landing, a downed Azerbaijan Airlines plane, and a tragic crash in South Korea killing 179. Following a Jeju Air incident, flight cancellations surged, prompting investigations into safety protocols. Historically, aviation disasters affect traveler behavior, as seen post-9/11. While Swiss Airlines remains stable, past events have led competitors to thrive, highlighting the need for Jeju Air to rebuild consumer trust amid this crisis.
Recent Turmoil in the Airline Industry
December has proven to be a challenging month for the airline sector, marked by several unsettling incidents. A Swiss aircraft was forced to make an emergency landing in Graz, while reports emerged of Russian forces allegedly downing a plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines. Additionally, a tragic accident in South Korea claimed the lives of 179 individuals, further compounding the negative news surrounding air travel.
The Impact of Airline Accidents on Traveler Behavior
Passengers, especially those who recently traveled with South Korean low-cost carrier Jeju Air, may experience heightened anxiety the next time they fly. On December 29, a Jeju Air flight had to perform a belly landing at Muan Airport, ultimately crashing into a wall. Investigations are underway to determine if safety protocols were neglected, leading to the mishap. Authorities have conducted searches at the airline’s headquarters, and the CEO is currently restricted from leaving the country. The fallout has been significant, with Jeju Air facing 68,000 flight cancellations within just one day following the incident.
Notably, past aviation disasters have historically influenced traveler behavior. For instance, after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, air travel in the United States plummeted by 20 percent within a month, taking three years to recover to pre-9/11 levels. Despite the statistical safety of air travel, Gerd Gigerenzer, a German behavioral psychologist, refers to the concept of “shock risks,” where the high number of fatalities in aviation accidents can impair rational risk evaluation.
Statistically, the chances of a fatal plane crash are incredibly low, with only one fatal accident occurring for every 13.7 million flights between 2018 and 2022. Yet, the perception of risk can lead people to mistakenly believe that driving is safer than flying. After the attacks on 9/11, many Americans chose road travel instead, resulting in an estimated 1,600 additional traffic fatalities in the year that followed, a phenomenon Gigerenzer has termed “Usama bin Laden’s second strike.”
Interestingly, despite the recent incidents, Swiss Airlines has reported no significant disruptions in bookings or cancellations. Generally, travelers tend to avoid the airline directly linked to a disaster rather than completely abandoning air travel. This pattern was evident with Malaysia Airlines, which faced two catastrophic events in 2014. Following the disappearance of flight MH370 and the downing of MH17, passengers flocked to competitors, leading to severe financial strains for the airline.
In the aftermath, Malaysia Airlines underwent significant restructuring, including a takeover by the Malaysian sovereign fund, which adjusted ticket prices and reduced routes to remain competitive. Surprisingly, the decision was made to retain the airline’s original name, which had garnered international attention, rather than rebranding. Dean Dacko, the airline’s marketing manager at the time, likened the brand’s perception shifts to those of major corporations like Coca-Cola and Pepsi, arguing that the notoriety could be leveraged for future growth.
As of 2023, Malaysia Airlines has successfully transported over 10 million passengers and has reportedly achieved its first annual profit in a decade. Similarly, the leadership at Jeju Air will need to implement effective strategies to restore consumer confidence and navigate through this crisis.