In an interview given a few days ago, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, said that we must prepare for the possibility of another Trump presidency.
She was absolutely right to mention it.
The authoritarian drift
When the minister points out that Canada must be prepared for various scenarios, she is only doing her job, but these remarks were in line with my concerns and those of many other observers and analysts.
Since Donald Trump’s snatch victory in 2016, the United States has become much more unstable, both domestically and internationally.
That a significant number of American voters pay little attention to an authoritarian drift, the rise of the extreme right and the contempt of many Republicans for the most elementary rules of a healthy democratic life are all reasons for have cold sweats.
When you think about it seriously, the assault on January 6, 2021 and the multiple maneuvers by Trump and his supporters to invalidate the results of the 2020 election could have resulted in even greater chaos, had it not been for the Constitution, the separation of powers and the resistance of a few elected officials in pivotal states.
The Supreme Court yesterday rejected a theory, the so-called “independent state legislators”, which would have allowed states to set their own election rules, while allowing them to escape legal challenges.
American states already enjoy extraordinary leeway in federal elections. Since the birth of the United States, there has been a desire to decentralize power and entrust large parts of it to the States.
While the states enjoy the right to manage the procedures of a federal election, no serious consideration had ever been given to removing them from the control of the judiciary.
That such an option enjoys enough support to be presented before the Supreme Court is in itself the symptom of a drift.
Marginal theory, but real dangers
I was impatiently awaiting yesterday’s judgment. I wondered if the more conservative majority of the highest court, made up of “originalist” jurists (glued to the Constitution as drafted in 1787), would find arguments to go against the founding text.
Equally important to me, a victory for the ‘independent state legislators’ theory would have meant that Trump supporters in some states would be able to achieve in 2024 what they missed in 2020, overturning a legitimate election .
Removing the state legislatures from the control of the judiciary means opening the door to all the manipulations of certain states to reduce or prevent a broader electoral participation, while reserving to them the exclusive right to validate the results.
I invite you to remain vigilant, this failed attempt is only one of the avenues taken by right-wing extremists. Judgment avoids the worst, but there will be other episodes.