Australians are expected to vote on Saturday for a historic referendum recognizing Aboriginal rights, but the latest polls suggest a “no” victory, after a tense campaign that reignited divisions in the country on the racial issue.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese calls for a “yes” vote to end “200 years of broken promises and betrayals, failures and false starts”. Unless there is a last minute change in public opinion, the reform should however be rejected and sign a bitter setback for the head of the Labor government.
The project, called “The Voice”, aims to recognize Indigenous Australia in the Constitution for the first time.
The reform, on which nearly 18 million voters must vote, would also create a representative body that can vote in Parliament on issues affecting indigenous peoples.
Supporters of reform say these measures would help heal the still raw wounds of Australia’s brutal past of colonization and racial repression.
Europeans landed in Australia in 1606 and colonized a continent inhabited for thousands of years by the Aborigines, whom they subjugated and sometimes massacred.
Today, Indigenous Australians have the same rights as other citizens, but they still suffer from stark inequalities.
The life expectancy of Aboriginal people is about eight years lower than that of other citizens. Statistically, their children are less educated and twice as likely to die during childhood.
The “yes” campaign was supported by a host of business leaders and celebrities — from actress Cate Blanchett to tennis player Ashley Barty — as well as the government.
But after leading the polls for a long time, the “yes” vote has been lagging behind since the conservative opposition, led by former Defense Minister Peter Dutton, fought the project.
Opponents of the reform criticize constitutional tinkering which would create divisions within society and would not be effective in improving the lot of indigenous communities.
The “no” campaign flourished thanks to concerns around the new powers granted to Aborigines, during debates often peppered with racist arguments, and a wave of misinformation on social networks.
A recent survey by the Resolve institute puts the “no” in the lead with 56% against 44% for the “yes”.
“We are not sorry”
Unless there is a “catastrophic failure of the polls”, the “no” is doomed to win, notes analyst Kevin Bonham, who considers a large turnaround impossible at this stage.
Whatever the outcome, the referendum is expected to have a profound impact on how Australians define themselves and how the country is viewed abroad.
“A defeat for the ‘yes’ vote would be a significant setback for indigenous peoples and for self-determination as a universal right,” notes Dominic O’Sullivan, professor of politics at Charles Sturt University.
This means that Australia “considers itself a colonial state” and wants to remain so, he believes, fearing that “racism will be reinforced” by a “no” victory.
Despite the government’s apologies in 2008 for the treatment of Aborigines, “a ‘no’ vote would say very, very firmly and loudly ‘we are not sorry'”, adds the academic, saying that it would not there would be “no other way to interpret it”.
Bec Strating, an international relations expert at La Trobe University, observes that this “crucial” vote will also have an impact on Australia’s image internationally.
She predicts that adversaries like China will rush to exploit the outcome and downplay their own human rights record.
Few referendums in Australia’s history have succeeded in convincing voters. Only eight consultations out of 44 proposed were approved. The others all failed due to a lack of combined government and opposition support, including a vote in 1999 on Australia becoming a republic.