As the world follows the tragic developments of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the shadow of another catastrophe, a catastrophe destined to aggravate all others, added itself to the picture on Monday, in the form of a new report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
We remember the “leak”, last summer, of the draft of the first part of the reports falling under the current assessment cycle carried out by the IPCC. This first report, intended to summarize the available data on global warming, was a veritable inventory of the devastation.
The forecasts made suggested a catastrophic warming within twenty years, as well as a possible scenario of warming which could reach 4.4 degrees between 2081 and 2100. In addition, the current commitments of the States in terms of reduction of GHGs, indicated -on, we are moving towards a warming of 2.7 degrees. The diagnosis was dark and implacable: life on this planet will be able to adapt to climate change, even major ones, by recreating ecosystems and new species. Humanity, on the other hand, will not survive it.
Creepy portraits, when it comes to the environment, don’t get good press. As soon as they are trained, they are placed in the category of excessive language. It is that one should not, apparently, pour into what is stupidly called “catastrophism”. On the contrary, you have to be measured, you have to keep a cool head, you have to know how to order priorities. There’s no point in panicking, let’s take one small step at a time. This is the watchword.
I have lost count of the times I have had my eyes rolled when I underlined the incongruous (not to say futile) character of certain ideas or political decisions taken when we find ourselves roughly speaking a century from the extinction of human life on earth. “We’re not going to bring everything back to that,” I am told. Oh good ?
This is the only area where the good society of the center and moderation does not constantly remind us of the importance of relying on scientific objectivity and acting on the faith of the data, just the data, and especially not ideology. The data is there and it is clear. Not only are they clear, but they are presented according to all the customs of neoliberal respectability. A proper press release and press conference, a nice infographic, an outstretched hand to transnational organizations and “decision makers”. Nothing works. The virtuous impulse, the imperative to act with a cool head, always stops where it counts. We prefer mystery.
All this to say that a new IPCC report was unveiled on Monday. This time, the spotlight is on “the impacts” as well as “vulnerability and adaptation” of humanity in the face of climate change. We learn there—without learning it, because we know it—that the world is not ready to make the major changes that are needed right now. A striking new image sums up the state of affairs: the window is closing on the very possibility of a “viable future” for humanity. “Irreversible” impacts are already being felt, we note.
In addition to adding a new layer of urgency—and rightly so—this report underscores the cruel reality of climate injustice: it is the populations hardest hit by climate disruption who are currently the least equipped to deal with it. adapt. In the regions of the world where individuals have contributed the least to GHG emissions, lack of access to water, food insecurity, displacements forced by the destruction of living environments, the proliferation of infectious diseases are intensify more rapidly than in northern societies. And we have fewer resources to support the populations. For a large proportion of humanity, the window of the “sustainable future” has already closed.
When the IPCC experts mention the dramatic insufficiency of the measures taken to curb GHG emissions and deploy the resources used to adapt to the disturbances already felt, they are greeted in an affable tone by those who bear the responsibility to act. Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s reaction to the IPCC report was surreal this week. “This IPCC report exposes what the world already knows: all countries must take bold action to mitigate and adapt to climate change,” and Canada, he concluded, must “remain” a leader. in the matter.
So we know how dire the situation is. We also know very well who we are making pay the price for inaction, and we are determined to look the other way until problems materialize here at home. Then, and only then, will we perhaps review the way forward, and the hierarchical arrangement of what deserves to be saved.
The model to follow, therefore, that of “leaders”, is based on complacency, contradictions and the sacrifice of vulnerable populations. Put in these terms, the planet’s “viable future” has never looked so bleak.