More MEPs, but for what? Far-right parties could experience a strong surge during the European elections from June 6 to 9, if the latest opinion surveys are to be believed. The National Rally (RN) could thus increase from 18 to 30 seats, the Fratelli d’Italia of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni from 10 to 22. As for the Dutch PVV of Geert Wilders, it could win eight seats, compared to none today, according to projections fromEurope Elects, dated May 31. Enough to shift the center of gravity of Parliament a little further to the right.
What would an influx of nationalist and Eurosceptic MEPs change in Brussels and Strasbourg? So far, “the influence of the extreme right was relatively weak, most of the texts were adopted by the majority composed of the right, the center and the center-left”, points out to franceinfo Gilles Ivaldi, research fellow at CNRS and Cevipof (Sciences Po). The capacity for action of elected RN officials within the institution is thus limited by a “sanitary cord”, the other parties preventing members of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group from accessing responsibilities, such as committee chairs. A state of affairs regularly denounced by the main stakeholders, as Mediapart reminds us.
The weakness of the role of the extreme right is also due to its division. MEPs from this camp are divided into two small political groups. On the one hand, ID, in which the National Rally and until recently the German AfD sits, holds a very Eurosceptic and pro-Moscow line. On the other, the Conservatives and Reformists (CRE), including Fratelli d’Italia and the Polish PiS, are more favorable to the EU and fervent defenders of Ukraine.
An attempt at rapprochement at the start of his mandate, in 2019, also failed, reports Euronews. In particular, the pro-Russian positions of the RN, a repulse for elected officials from Eastern Europe, as well as the refusal of British pro-Brexit deputies, who still sat in Parliament, to ally themselves with the party of Marine Le Pen, whose image was very negative across the Channel. This division “reduces the impact that these parties can have on European politics”, underlines Sabine Volk, associate researcher at the University of Passau (Germany). Especially since these nationalist parties have views “very heterogeneous and do not necessarily vote the same way”including within the same group, adds Gilles Ivaldi.
A few days before the elections, however, there are signs that these parties could ally themselves, which would considerably strengthen their influence. First, the exclusion of the AfD from the Identity and Democracy group, after revisionist remarks by the German head of the list on the SS, at the end of May. The party had become cumbersome for the RN’s demonization enterprise. Very anti-EU, the AfD advocates leaving the euro and has sparked several controversies in recent months, notably by evoking a plan to “remigration” which triggered large demonstrations across the Rhine. Another signal, the presence of Marine Le Pen at a major meeting of Conservatives and reformists in Madrid, on May 19, in the presence of the Spanish far-right party Vox and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.
What foreshadows the dissolution of ID and the entry of RN into a large CRE group? It will first be necessary to decide the fate of Eric Zemmour’s Reconquest party, in competition with the RN in France and whose only elected official currently sits with the CRE. There is also the question of the integration of the Fidesz deputies of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, without a group since their exclusion from the European People’s Party (EPP) in 2021. Bringing pro-Moscow elected officials to coexist alongside supporters of Ukraine does not go without saying.
The formation of a single far-right group will in any case have to go through Georgia Meloni. Since coming to power in 2022, the Italian leader has become a central figure in the European game by moderating her speech, particularly on the EU and support for Ukraine against Russia, recalls the Financial Times. A model that certain far-right parties, like the RN, are tempted to follow, in the hope of gaining influence at the European level and coming to power. “By collaborating with them, it could give credibility to the most radical parties”underlines Gilles Ivaldi.
Even if it appears “difficult”according to the Vox party cited by Euractiv, a coalition of right-wing populist forces “would go in the direction of history”observes the researcher. In any case, it would be the logical outcome of “Marine Le Pen’s normalization strategy, particularly on criticism of the EU” he specifies. Sabine Volk, less convinced, believes that “even if there is no single group, we will witness a new stage in the diffusion of extreme ideas right”. A dynamic already “apparent on the subject of immigration, even among certain left-wing parties”underlines the researcher.
Beyond the hemicycle, the rise of the far right influences the entire European political class, particularly the right. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, did not rule out the possibility of working with the CRE group, during the debate of the heads of the European lists on April 30, recalls Euractiv. “It’s Parliament that makes the majorities.”, she justified herself, sparking indignation from environmentalists and the left. The Commission does not currently need the votes of the extreme right to have its texts adopted, but the situation could change during the next mandate.
While her re-election as head of the European executive is not yet guaranteed, the politician from the German right must seek support elsewhere, and may need Georgia Meloni to be reappointed after the June elections. A sign that the subject is no longer taboo at the European level, mirroring the right-far right coalitions which govern in Sweden, Finland and soon the Netherlands. “We can clearly see that the classic right is no longer reluctant to cooperate with the extreme right, in its most respectable version”underlines Gilles Ivaldi.
“There are two movements at the same time: an extreme right which is normalizing itself and a right which is legitimizing its ideas.”
Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at Cevipofat franceinfo
The European campaign suggests a change in the EU’s political priorities. “The influence of the far right is felt, particularly on the Green Deal”, adds the researcher. Joining the far right, the right now denounces this package of measures which aims for carbon neutrality of the EU in 2050, even though Ursula von der Leyen had made it the cornerstone of her action during her first mandate.
As a result, European climate ambition could be revised downwards, worries an article in European Council on International Relations published at the end of May. More generally, “we are moving towards more conservative policies”estimates Gilles Ivaldi. “Even if it is complicated to make a prediction, I think we will see a focus on immigration and a new turn of the screw on this subject”, adds Sabine Volk. More broadly, a more conservative Parliament would result in a fight for fewer rules and standards, particularly in environmental matters, summarizes Politico.
However, not everything is played out in the Parliament hemicycle. Europe’s political priorities will also be guided by the national elections of member states in the coming years. “The European Council [qui réunit les 27 dirigeants des Etats membres] could count three or four heads of government from the far right, notably the Netherlands, but also France if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election”, notes Gilles Ivaldi. A result which would profoundly change the balance of the European institution.
Could several Eurosceptic heads of state ally themselves with the Hungarian Viktor Orban and hamper European action? “The EU can absorb this shock, everything will depend on its strength”, replies the researcher. According to him, “experience shows that most of the time, realpolitik imposes itself on Eurosceptic leaders”. In the Netherlands, the government agreement signed by Geert Wilders with the right, for example, promises unwavering support for Ukraine, although the populist had campaigned against it. Sabine Volk confirms this: “History tells us that the EU generally emerges more integrated from crises, but this time the threat comes from within. I believe that integration will continue, but the question is: at what speed and in what form?”