Since its infancy, the CAQ, founded in 2011 by former PQ minister François Legault and former Liberal recruiter Charles Sirois, had three objectives.
- Seeing Quebecers lose interest in the national question, more skillfully occupy the nationalist and non-sovereignty niche of the ADQ.
- Establish credibility by recruiting star candidates.
- Betting on a seizure of power by eventually replacing the Parti Québécois as a natural alternative to the Liberal Party of Quebec. Everything will be done in two steps.
On September 4, 2012, in its first election, the CAQ won 27% of the vote. It is already attracting many disappointed PQ voters. Result: Pauline Marois had to settle for a minority government.
1er October 2018, the PQ slips to 17%. Never seen. The death of the PQ seems imminent. With 37% of the vote, including even more former PQ voters, the CAQ took power. Mission accomplished.
Ascent of the PQ
However, a Léger/TVA Nouvelles poll published on Wednesday confirms the rise of the PQ to second place in terms of voting intentions. A recovery started in fact immediately after the October 3 election.
At 22% in Quebec, the PQ garners 7 points more than in the election. At 42% support among Francophones, the CAQ still largely dominates, but the PQ follows it at 26%.
In the greater Quebec City region, taking advantage of the anger over the CAQ’s abandonment of its flagship promise of a third highway link, the PQ even exceeded it with 28% support. This is by far the biggest surprise of the survey.
So what’s going on? Short answer: the PSPP “effect”. Since the campaign, the poised and respectful tone of new chef Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has hit the mark. Even beyond the remaining PQ hard core.
Unlike his post-Parizeau predecessors, his decision to no longer hide his party’s sovereignist option also gives him an air of authenticity.
The audacious communication strategy of the three PQ MNAs, betting on maximum media visibility on subjects no one else is talking about, including the oath to the king, has proven to be effective.
Result: despite the worst electoral result in the history of the PQ, the “effect” PSPP is currently small miracles. A nuance, however, for the region of Quebec.
The PLQ disappears from the radar
The rise of the PQ is partly explained by the PSPP “effect”, but also by the ambient anger against the CAQ and the collapse of the French-speaking liberal vote. At 5% support, the Liberals disappear from the radar.
In Quebec, 16 points behind the CAQ, however, the PQ have nothing to dream of an upcoming election victory. Their improvement nevertheless solidifies. The next few years will tell if their progress will continue or not.
For the moment, the PQ’s biggest dream would be to reverse the results of 2012 in 2026. Or to win just enough seats to confine the CAQ, like the PQ at the time, to a minority victory.
History would then show an impressive sense of irony. The reality is much more down to earth. With three and a half years until the next election, it is impossible to predict anything.
The tectonic plates of Quebec politics are still far from seriously moving. The rise of the PQ nevertheless makes the political contest a bit more unpredictable than it was so far.